KPHX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

85%

81%

72%

22%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 54.1¢Risks 54.10u

ICONNO 45.9¢Risks 45.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.90u · ICON −45.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	72.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	26.7%	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	82.8%	—	—	84.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	1.8%	91.0%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	34.9%	83.4%	21.4%	—	87.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	67.0%	98.6%	63.6%	—	85.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	80.5%	87.5%	88.6%	—	80.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	67.0%	80.0%	50.8%	44.4%	78.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	75.7%	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	75.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	84.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	85.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	83.3°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	81.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	70.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗