WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPHX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
73%
ICON
66%
AIFS
62%
WN2
60%
EPS
44%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 58.6¢Risks 58.60u
VS
EPSNO 41.4¢Risks 41.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +41.40u · EPS −41.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:42+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:42+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00ICON: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:42+00:00ICON: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00ICON: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00ICON: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00ICON: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:00ICON: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00ICON: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00ICON: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00ICON: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00ICON: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00ICON: 66.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:42+00:0057.6%55.1%60.8%84.7%47.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:0057.6%55.1%61.5%84.7%47.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:0057.6%55.1%61.5%84.7%47.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:0057.6%55.1%61.5%84.7%47.6%
2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:0064.4%55.1%61.5%72.8%66.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:0064.4%55.1%61.5%72.8%66.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:0064.4%55.1%61.5%72.8%66.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0064.4%55.1%61.5%72.8%66.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:0064.4%55.1%61.5%72.8%66.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:0064.4%44.4%60.1%72.8%66.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:0064.4%44.4%60.1%72.8%66.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:0064.4%44.4%60.1%72.8%66.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:0061.6%44.4%60.1%72.8%66.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:0061.6%44.4%60.1%72.8%66.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES73%85.5°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON66%84.5°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single62%83.1°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
National Blend61%83.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 260%82.7°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%82.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble44%80.7°F5.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗