KPHX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

66%

62%

60%

44%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 58.6¢Risks 58.60u

EPSNO 41.4¢Risks 41.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +41.40u · EPS −41.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	14.0%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	67.6%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.6%	0.5%	79.7%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	18.0%	67.0%	9.3%	—	73.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	45.6%	94.9%	42.0%	—	69.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	61.3%	71.7%	73.6%	—	60.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	43.6%	59.5%	28.1%	23.0%	57.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	53.3%	—	—	42.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	73%	85.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	84.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	83.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	83.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	82.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	80.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗