KPHX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

51%

49%

46%

30%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

WN2NO 58.2¢Risks 58.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.20u · WN2 −58.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	47.0%	30.7%	43.2%	61.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	47.0%	30.7%	43.2%	61.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	47.0%	30.7%	43.2%	61.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	47.0%	30.7%	55.1%	61.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	47.0%	30.7%	55.1%	61.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	47.0%	30.7%	55.1%	61.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	55.1%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	55.1%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	55.1%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	55.1%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:19+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	55.1%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T04:06:02+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	41.2%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	54.0%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	49.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	54.0%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	49.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	54.0%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	49.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	54.0%	30.7%	38.2%	61.9%	49.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:32+00:00	54.0%	45.6%	29.6%	51.4%	49.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	54.0%	45.6%	29.6%	51.4%	49.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	54.0%	45.6%	29.6%	51.4%	49.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	54.0%	45.6%	29.6%	51.4%	49.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	54%	84.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	83.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	49%	83.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	82.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	83.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	81.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261025-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 19 · 15:14 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗