KPHX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

51%

49%

46%

30%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

WN2NO 58.2¢Risks 58.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.20u · WN2 −58.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	8.3%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	—	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	55.2%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	0.2%	68.8%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	10.2%	53.5%	4.7%	—	61.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	31.7%	89.7%	28.5%	—	55.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	46.2%	57.6%	59.8%	—	45.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	28.8%	43.6%	16.4%	12.7%	41.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	37.2%	—	—	27.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	54%	84.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	83.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	49%	83.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	82.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	83.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	81.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261025-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 19 · 15:14 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗