KPHX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

16%

13%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.1¢Risks 4.55u

WN2NO 90.9¢Risks 45.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.45u · WN2 −45.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:02:02+00:00	20.2%	5.6%	12.9%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	20.2%	5.6%	12.9%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	20.2%	5.6%	12.9%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	20.2%	5.6%	12.9%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T11:03:05+00:00	20.2%	7.1%	12.0%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	20.2%	7.1%	12.0%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	20.2%	7.1%	12.0%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	20.2%	7.1%	12.0%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	21.7%	7.1%	12.0%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:18+00:00	21.7%	7.1%	12.0%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	21.7%	5.5%	12.0%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	21.7%	5.5%	12.0%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	21.7%	5.5%	7.7%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	21.7%	5.5%	7.7%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	21.7%	5.5%	7.7%	24.8%	3.1%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	14.4%	5.5%	7.7%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	14.4%	5.5%	7.7%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00	14.4%	5.5%	7.7%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	14.4%	5.5%	7.7%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	14.4%	5.5%	7.7%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	14.4%	5.5%	9.8%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	14.4%	5.5%	9.8%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	14.4%	5.5%	9.8%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	11.5%	5.5%	9.8%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	11.5%	5.5%	9.8%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	11.5%	5.5%	9.8%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	11.5%	5.5%	9.8%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:44+00:00	11.5%	5.5%	9.8%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	11.5%	5.5%	10.2%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	11.5%	5.5%	10.2%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	11.5%	5.5%	10.2%	41.4%	19.5%
2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:00	13.4%	5.5%	10.2%	27.2%	24.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	13.4%	5.5%	10.2%	27.2%	24.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	13.4%	5.5%	10.2%	27.2%	24.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	13.4%	5.5%	10.2%	27.2%	24.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	13.4%	5.5%	10.2%	27.2%	24.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	13.4%	5.9%	7.3%	27.2%	24.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	13.4%	5.9%	7.3%	27.2%	24.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	13.4%	5.9%	7.3%	27.2%	24.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	11.8%	5.9%	7.3%	27.2%	24.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	11.8%	6.0%	7.3%	27.2%	24.2%
2026-10-19T15:14:02+00:00	11.8%	5.7%	7.3%	27.2%	24.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	11.8%	5.7%	7.3%	27.2%	24.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	11.8%	5.7%	7.3%	27.2%	24.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	11.8%	5.7%	12.4%	27.2%	24.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	11.8%	5.7%	12.4%	27.2%	24.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	11.8%	5.7%	12.4%	27.2%	24.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	12.4%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	12.4%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	12.4%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	12.4%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:19+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	12.4%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-20T04:06:02+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	9.1%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	34.2%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	13.3%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	15.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	13.3%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	15.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	13.3%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	15.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	13.3%	5.7%	5.7%	27.2%	15.9%
2026-10-20T10:54:32+00:00	13.3%	11.1%	2.3%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	13.3%	11.1%	2.3%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	13.3%	11.1%	2.3%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	13.3%	11.1%	2.3%	15.8%	15.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	16%	83.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	83.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	84.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	82.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	83.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	81.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗