KPHX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

16%

13%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.0¢Risks 4.52u

WN2NO 91.0¢Risks 45.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.48u · WN2 −45.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	19.8%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.0%	30.0%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	1.0%	16.6%	0.3%	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	5.7%	56.6%	4.8%	—	17.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	10.7%	16.9%	18.4%	—	10.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	3.9%	8.7%	1.5%	1.0%	7.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	6.0%	—	—	3.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	16%	83.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	83.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	84.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	82.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	83.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	81.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗