WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPHX / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
83%
HRES
80%
EPS
73%
WN2
58%
ICON
13%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 48.2¢Risks 48.25u
VS
ICONNO 51.8¢Risks 51.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +51.75u · ICON −51.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 63.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 63.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 74.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 77.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 85.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 73.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 80.1% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 55.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 66.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.0%———4.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:007.7%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0026.5%———31.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.2%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0014.3%———34.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0054.2%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.5%———27.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0046.8%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:004.8%———34.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0041.0%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0029.7%———43.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:005.1%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0036.9%———34.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0015.6%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:005.9%———30.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:006.1%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0018.9%———31.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0013.9%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0028.6%———34.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0031.2%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0016.7%———35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0028.6%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0036.2%—41.8%—31.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0045.8%—63.4%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0040.4%———50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0051.2%—28.9%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0043.7%—63.5%—55.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0052.6%—74.5%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0042.9%—77.9%—66.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0050.0%—85.6%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0052.7%0.4%38.0%39.3%71.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0060.2%—73.9%——
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——80.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single83%89.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES80%88.8°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble73%86.6°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 258%84.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
National Blend56%84.0°F3.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON13%72.4°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261027-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗