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KPIT / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
83%
AIFS
76%
WN2
40%
EPS
35%
ICON
25%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 53.9¢Risks 53.95u
VS
ICONNO 46.1¢Risks 46.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.05u · ICON −46.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.8% · 2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.8% · 2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.8% · 2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.8% · 2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.8% · 2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.5% · 2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.5% · 2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.5% · 2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00IFS HRES: 83.0% · 2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00IFS HRES: 83.0% · 2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00IFS HRES: 83.0% · 2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00IFS HRES: 83.0% · 2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00IFS HRES: 83.0% · 2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:0009-08 03:3809-08 05:0809-08 06:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:0075.6%34.8%30.7%83.0%24.9%
2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:0075.6%34.8%30.7%83.0%24.9%
2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:0075.6%34.8%39.5%83.0%24.9%
2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:0075.6%34.8%39.5%83.0%24.9%
2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:0075.6%34.8%39.5%83.0%24.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES83%——Not retainedPending
AIFS Single76%——Not retainedPending
NWS forecast57%——Not retainedPending
National Blend40%——Not retainedPending
WeatherNext 240%——Not retainedPending
RRFS39%——Not retainedPending
IFS Ensemble35%——Not retainedPending
ICON25%——Not retainedPending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260908-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 84°F · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗