KPIT / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

76%

40%

35%

25%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 53.9¢Risks 53.95u

ICONNO 46.1¢Risks 46.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.05u · ICON −46.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-08-24T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	4.4%	—	—	34.6%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	1.0%	—	—	41.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	16.4%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	0.8%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	1.4%	4.9%	—	38.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	36.4%	35.0%	—	44.9%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	15.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	47.7%	9.7%	—	46.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	37.0%	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	70.5%	17.9%	19.5%	—	37.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	11.0%	22.4%	—	—	38.7%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	51.7%	26.5%	29.3%	—	30.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	37.4%	11.9%	—	—	33.4%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	61.3%	28.4%	36.3%	—	40.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	65.8%	39.3%	—	—	39.3%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	69.5%	42.7%	24.4%	—	47.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	64.8%	42.5%	—	—	47.2%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	58.7%	28.7%	36.6%	—	49.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	52.0%	31.7%	—	—	53.0%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	45.9%	44.9%	21.2%	—	49.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	50.0%	39.5%	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	53.3%	52.2%	26.4%	—	60.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	60.0%	29.6%	0.0%	—	60.0%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	53.5%	32.0%	25.1%	16.8%	53.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	60.7%	35.9%	28.3%	—	56.0%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	46.3%	40.1%	20.8%	23.6%	65.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	44.9%	30.2%	18.2%	—	66.3%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	38.1%	51.3%	19.1%	28.4%	72.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	45.8%	43.1%	24.2%	—	70.0%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	57.2%	20.2%	26.8%	28.0%	69.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	42.5%	17.2%	26.0%	—	64.8%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	29.0%	18.1%	21.4%	37.6%	57.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	41.8%	19.2%	26.7%	—	59.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	83%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	40%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	39%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	25%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260908-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 84°F · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗