KPIT / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

63%

23%

21%

15%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 46.4¢Risks 46.40u

WN2NO 53.6¢Risks 53.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +53.60u · WN2 −53.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-08-24T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	3.2%	—	—	29.3%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	35.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	12.7%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	0.9%	3.3%	—	31.7%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	29.7%	28.5%	—	37.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	11.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	40.2%	6.8%	—	39.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	29.9%	—	—	29.9%
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	63.3%	13.1%	14.5%	—	30.1%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	7.6%	16.8%	—	—	31.2%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	43.4%	20.1%	22.5%	—	23.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	29.6%	8.2%	—	—	26.0%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	52.6%	21.4%	28.4%	—	32.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	57.1%	31.0%	—	—	31.0%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	60.9%	33.9%	17.8%	—	38.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	55.7%	33.5%	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	49.0%	21.0%	27.9%	—	39.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	42.0%	23.4%	—	—	43.0%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	35.9%	34.9%	14.5%	—	38.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	39.5%	29.8%	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	42.4%	41.3%	18.3%	—	50.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	48.9%	20.6%	0.0%	—	48.9%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	41.9%	22.4%	16.8%	10.5%	41.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	48.8%	25.3%	19.1%	—	44.0%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	34.2%	28.7%	13.0%	15.1%	53.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	32.5%	20.0%	10.9%	—	53.9%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	26.2%	38.1%	11.3%	18.2%	60.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	32.5%	30.0%	14.7%	—	56.9%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	42.8%	11.5%	16.3%	17.2%	55.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	28.5%	9.2%	15.3%	—	50.0%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	17.1%	9.6%	11.7%	23.8%	42.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	26.7%	9.9%	15.0%	—	43.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	78%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	22%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	21%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	20%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	12%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260908-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗