KPIT / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Sep 09 · 06:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

37%

36%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.4¢Risks 25.45u

EPSNO 74.6¢Risks 74.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.55u · EPS −74.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	23.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	59.4%	—	—	27.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	0.7%	0.1%	—	36.2%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	2.3%	12.4%	14.4%	—	19.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	1.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	1.1%	30.3%	22.8%	—	17.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	31.2%	—	—	14.5%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	56.4%	39.0%	21.2%	—	36.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	1.8%	27.7%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	50.0%	42.5%	21.9%	—	36.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	29.6%	46.6%	—	—	36.6%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	32.2%	36.3%	13.6%	—	36.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	21.5%	32.6%	—	—	33.4%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	23.7%	29.7%	9.0%	—	33.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	31.8%	23.1%	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	33.0%	31.3%	7.2%	—	31.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	30.8%	28.2%	—	—	28.2%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	23.5%	16.3%	4.9%	—	22.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	22.0%	25.3%	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	7.3%	19.8%	3.1%	—	26.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	11.2%	22.3%	0.0%	—	27.6%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	11.0%	25.1%	2.4%	1.5%	25.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	13.9%	17.5%	5.5%	—	20.8%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	19.1%	16.6%	3.0%	1.8%	23.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	13.5%	17.4%	3.2%	—	19.1%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	12.0%	16.5%	3.0%	4.0%	15.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	19.1%	8.1%	3.5%	—	19.1%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	10.2%	1.6%	2.7%	2.5%	13.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	5.6%	11.2%	2.0%	—	7.5%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	2.9%	12.5%	1.8%	5.7%	6.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.9%	18.1%	4.1%	—	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	50%	89.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	88.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	88.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	86.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
ICON	8%	84.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	84.3°F	2.2°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260909-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗