KPIT / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

52%

13%

10%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.9¢Risks 33.95u

HRESNO 66.1¢Risks 66.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.05u · HRES −66.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	59.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	43.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	38.2%	—	—	58.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	31.2%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	89.2%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	47.9%	23.5%	—	36.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	49.3%	12.0%	23.2%	—	43.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	22.1%	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	56.8%	25.8%	11.4%	—	32.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	6.1%	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	32.3%	30.1%	20.6%	—	34.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	18.4%	18.9%	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	24.5%	16.8%	6.3%	—	16.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	22.0%	7.2%	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	36.3%	8.0%	2.5%	—	13.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	26.4%	6.9%	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	20.9%	16.0%	2.9%	—	9.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	29.2%	4.6%	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	12.6%	14.7%	1.2%	—	12.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	13.0%	0.8%	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	13.4%	4.4%	1.0%	7.8%	4.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	17.6%	1.1%	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	15.5%	0.5%	0.1%	7.7%	2.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	14.8%	0.3%	0.2%	—	2.6%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	12.7%	0.2%	6.5%	11.6%	1.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	15.2%	0.1%	0.1%	—	1.9%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	13.7%	1.7%	6.7%	0.7%	0.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	15.8%	0.2%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	13.4%	3.2%	16.5%	1.7%	8.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	12.4%	6.7%	11.8%	—	8.6%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	12.2%	30.5%	1.0%	14.6%	15.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	8.0%	11.2%	9.9%	—	13.6%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	1.0%	62.4%	19.2%	0.6%	14.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	48.4%	5.3%	—	5.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	59%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	13%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	6%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260910-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗