KPIT / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 11 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

80%

78%

51%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 50.1¢Risks 50.15u

ICONNO 49.9¢Risks 49.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +49.85u · ICON −49.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00	84.4%	74.4%	62.3%	86.8%	49.3%
2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00	84.4%	74.4%	62.3%	86.8%	49.3%
2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00	84.4%	74.4%	62.3%	86.8%	49.3%
2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00	84.4%	74.4%	62.3%	86.8%	49.3%
2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00	84.4%	74.4%	62.3%	86.8%	49.3%
2026-09-08T14:54:39+00:00	73.6%	75.3%	73.2%	81.2%	79.4%
2026-09-08T15:39:46+00:00	73.6%	75.3%	73.2%	81.2%	79.4%
2026-09-08T15:49:08+00:00	73.6%	75.3%	73.2%	81.2%	79.4%
2026-09-08T16:00:06+00:00	73.6%	75.3%	73.2%	81.2%	79.4%
2026-09-08T16:45:14+00:00	73.6%	75.3%	73.2%	81.2%	79.4%
2026-09-08T17:06:41+00:00	73.6%	75.3%	71.5%	81.2%	79.4%
2026-09-08T17:20:26+00:00	73.6%	75.3%	71.5%	81.2%	79.4%
2026-09-08T18:05:34+00:00	73.6%	75.3%	71.5%	81.2%	79.4%
2026-09-08T18:50:38+00:00	73.6%	75.3%	71.5%	81.2%	79.4%
2026-09-08T19:35:43+00:00	49.2%	75.3%	71.5%	77.2%	51.7%
2026-09-08T20:20:49+00:00	49.2%	75.3%	71.5%	77.2%	51.7%
2026-09-08T21:05:54+00:00	49.2%	75.3%	71.5%	77.2%	51.7%
2026-09-08T21:50:58+00:00	49.2%	75.3%	71.5%	77.2%	51.7%
2026-09-08T22:36:03+00:00	49.2%	75.3%	71.5%	77.2%	51.7%
2026-09-08T23:21:09+00:00	49.2%	75.3%	76.5%	77.2%	51.7%
2026-09-09T00:06:14+00:00	49.2%	75.3%	76.5%	77.2%	51.7%
2026-09-09T00:51:21+00:00	49.2%	75.3%	76.5%	77.2%	51.7%
2026-09-09T01:36:26+00:00	24.4%	75.3%	76.5%	77.2%	51.7%
2026-09-09T02:21:31+00:00	24.4%	75.3%	76.5%	77.2%	51.7%
2026-09-09T15:08:24+00:00	34.4%	3.1%	81.0%	63.7%	74.9%
2026-09-09T15:53:33+00:00	34.4%	3.1%	81.0%	63.7%	74.9%
2026-09-09T16:38:38+00:00	34.4%	3.1%	81.0%	63.7%	45.9%
2026-09-09T17:23:44+00:00	34.4%	3.1%	75.3%	63.7%	45.9%
2026-09-09T18:08:51+00:00	34.4%	3.1%	75.3%	63.7%	45.9%
2026-09-09T18:53:56+00:00	34.4%	3.1%	75.3%	63.7%	45.9%
2026-09-09T19:39:02+00:00	66.4%	3.1%	75.3%	87.8%	45.9%
2026-09-09T20:24:12+00:00	66.4%	3.1%	75.3%	87.8%	45.9%
2026-09-09T21:09:17+00:00	66.4%	3.1%	75.3%	87.8%	45.9%
2026-09-09T21:54:22+00:00	66.4%	3.1%	75.3%	87.8%	45.9%
2026-09-09T22:39:30+00:00	66.4%	3.1%	75.3%	87.8%	45.9%
2026-09-09T23:24:35+00:00	66.4%	3.1%	77.8%	87.8%	45.9%
2026-09-10T00:09:40+00:00	66.4%	3.1%	77.8%	87.8%	45.9%
2026-09-10T00:54:47+00:00	66.4%	3.1%	77.8%	87.8%	45.9%
2026-09-10T01:39:53+00:00	41.2%	3.1%	77.8%	87.8%	45.9%
2026-09-10T02:25:00+00:00	41.2%	70.7%	77.8%	87.8%	45.9%
2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00	41.2%	70.7%	77.8%	87.8%	45.9%
2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00	41.2%	70.7%	77.8%	87.8%	45.9%
2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00	41.2%	70.7%	77.8%	87.8%	72.5%
2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00	41.2%	70.7%	81.0%	87.8%	72.5%
2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00	41.2%	70.7%	81.0%	87.8%	72.5%
2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:00	41.2%	70.7%	81.0%	87.8%	72.5%
2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00	42.6%	70.7%	81.0%	82.6%	72.5%
2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00	42.6%	70.7%	81.0%	82.6%	72.5%
2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00	42.6%	70.7%	81.0%	82.6%	72.5%
2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00	42.6%	70.7%	81.0%	82.6%	72.5%
2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00	42.6%	70.7%	81.0%	82.6%	72.5%
2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00	42.6%	65.1%	78.0%	82.6%	72.5%
2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00	42.6%	65.1%	78.0%	82.6%	72.5%
2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00	42.6%	65.1%	78.0%	82.6%	72.5%
2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00	50.0%	65.1%	78.0%	82.6%	72.5%
2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00	50.0%	65.0%	78.0%	82.5%	72.5%
2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00	50.0%	65.0%	78.0%	82.5%	72.5%
2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00	50.0%	65.0%	78.0%	82.5%	72.5%
2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00	50.0%	65.0%	78.0%	82.5%	12.8%
2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00	50.0%	65.0%	79.6%	82.5%	12.8%
2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00	50.0%	65.0%	79.6%	82.5%	12.8%
2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00	50.0%	65.0%	79.6%	82.5%	12.8%
2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00	52.8%	65.0%	79.6%	63.1%	12.8%
2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00	52.8%	65.0%	79.6%	63.1%	12.8%
2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00	52.8%	65.0%	79.6%	63.1%	12.8%
2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00	52.8%	65.0%	79.6%	63.1%	12.8%
2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00	52.8%	65.0%	79.6%	63.1%	12.8%
2026-09-10T23:28:02+00:00	52.8%	65.0%	82.7%	63.1%	12.8%
2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00	52.8%	65.0%	82.7%	63.1%	12.8%
2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00	52.8%	66.6%	82.7%	63.1%	12.8%
2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00	44.4%	60.2%	82.7%	63.1%	12.8%
2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00	44.4%	60.2%	82.7%	63.1%	12.8%
2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00	44.4%	60.2%	82.7%	63.1%	12.8%
2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00	44.4%	60.2%	82.7%	63.1%	12.8%
2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00	44.4%	60.2%	82.7%	63.1%	3.0%
2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00	44.4%	60.2%	84.1%	63.1%	3.0%
2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00	44.4%	60.2%	84.1%	63.1%	3.0%
2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00	44.4%	60.2%	84.1%	63.1%	3.0%
2026-09-11T07:44:14+00:00	58.6%	60.2%	84.1%	97.3%	3.0%
2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00	58.6%	60.2%	84.1%	97.3%	3.0%
2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00	58.6%	60.2%	84.1%	97.3%	3.0%
2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00	58.6%	60.2%	84.1%	97.3%	3.0%
2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00	58.6%	60.2%	84.1%	97.3%	3.0%
2026-09-11T11:29:54+00:00	58.6%	72.6%	80.5%	97.3%	3.0%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	58.6%	72.6%	80.5%	97.3%	3.0%
2026-09-11T13:00:08+00:00	58.6%	72.6%	80.5%	97.3%	3.0%
2026-09-11T13:45:21+00:00	51.0%	72.6%	80.5%	97.3%	3.0%
2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00	51.0%	78.0%	80.5%	97.3%	3.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	97%	86.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	82.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	81.3°F	2.3°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	79.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	78.9°F	3.3°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
ICON	3%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260912-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗