KPIT / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 11 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

80%

78%

51%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 50.1¢Risks 50.15u

ICONNO 49.9¢Risks 49.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +49.85u · ICON −49.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	71.7%	—	—	27.3%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	11.6%	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	8.5%	—	—	65.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	21.8%	—	—	48.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	50.7%	1.8%	—	50.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	76.3%	61.6%	—	60.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	32.3%	32.3%	40.2%	—	73.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	38.5%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	33.0%	84.1%	50.0%	—	76.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	1.4%	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	17.3%	63.9%	32.2%	—	69.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	48.3%	75.4%	—	—	69.7%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	71.6%	77.9%	41.3%	—	75.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	64.9%	72.1%	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	40.9%	23.7%	53.7%	—	72.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	59.4%	12.7%	—	—	64.8%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	71.3%	67.8%	45.1%	—	66.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	65.6%	74.3%	—	—	54.0%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	42.8%	39.8%	83.7%	—	75.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	37.5%	0.7%	—	—	74.7%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	77.0%	0.3%	83.1%	3.1%	75.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	38.9%	16.1%	0.1%	—	77.7%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	16.0%	0.1%	61.5%	9.4%	57.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	22.5%	0.7%	59.5%	—	64.1%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	5.2%	1.1%	58.7%	84.9%	86.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	15.8%	0.9%	32.5%	—	85.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	79.0%	1.6%	77.0%	0.1%	80.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	92.4%	45.8%	85.3%	—	84.5%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	87.8%	41.4%	70.7%	93.7%	93.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	80.8%	94.0%	42.5%	—	94.4%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	77.4%	95.9%	50.0%	93.4%	82.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	67.6%	59.8%	45.1%	—	38.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	97%	86.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	82.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	81.3°F	2.3°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	79.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	78.9°F	3.3°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
ICON	3%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260912-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗