KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Sep 12 · 14:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

88%

54%

39%

39%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.3¢Risks 69.30u

ICONNO 30.7¢Risks 30.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.70u · ICON −30.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T03:17:40+00:00	55.4%	99.9%	94.7%	34.6%	73.1%
2026-09-12T04:02:54+00:00	55.4%	99.9%	94.7%	34.6%	73.1%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	55.4%	99.9%	94.7%	34.6%	73.1%
2026-09-12T05:33:03+00:00	55.4%	99.9%	91.1%	34.6%	73.1%
2026-09-12T06:18:12+00:00	55.4%	99.9%	91.1%	34.6%	73.1%
2026-09-12T07:03:17+00:00	55.4%	99.9%	91.1%	34.6%	73.1%
2026-09-12T07:48:24+00:00	58.3%	99.9%	91.1%	35.0%	38.8%
2026-09-12T08:33:44+00:00	58.3%	99.9%	91.1%	35.0%	38.8%
2026-09-12T09:18:48+00:00	58.3%	99.9%	91.1%	35.0%	38.8%
2026-09-12T10:03:54+00:00	58.3%	99.9%	91.1%	35.0%	38.8%
2026-09-12T10:48:58+00:00	58.3%	99.9%	91.1%	35.0%	38.8%
2026-09-12T11:34:04+00:00	58.3%	99.8%	88.0%	35.0%	38.8%
2026-09-12T12:19:13+00:00	58.3%	99.8%	88.0%	35.0%	38.8%
2026-09-12T13:04:21+00:00	58.3%	99.8%	88.0%	35.0%	38.8%
2026-09-12T13:49:26+00:00	53.7%	99.8%	88.0%	35.0%	38.8%
2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00	53.7%	99.8%	88.0%	38.9%	38.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	78.8°F	2.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	76.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	72.9°F	4.3°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	70.9°F	5.7°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	71.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	70.9°F	4.3°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗