KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Sep 12 · 14:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

88%

54%

39%

39%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.3¢Risks 69.30u

ICONNO 30.7¢Risks 30.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.70u · ICON −30.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	91.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	82.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	59.3%	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	—	—	—	82.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	99.7%	—	—	95.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	98.4%	59.7%	—	96.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	98.7%	99.3%	—	93.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	59.8%	98.8%	99.0%	—	98.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	99.6%	99.2%	99.8%	—	97.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	71.0%	99.3%	—	—	82.7%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	82.7%	99.6%	99.5%	—	96.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	82.2%	99.7%	—	—	79.9%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	62.1%	81.0%	29.9%	—	74.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	75.0%	98.5%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	64.4%	63.6%	77.7%	36.4%	83.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	76.2%	69.9%	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	75.3%	18.3%	70.4%	—	53.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	73.5%	13.5%	—	—	39.1%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	69.7%	20.4%	39.8%	—	33.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	52.1%	13.8%	—	—	21.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	44.5%	10.4%	16.2%	—	20.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	46.6%	11.8%	12.3%	—	19.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	48.8%	12.7%	16.0%	13.4%	17.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	33.6%	10.8%	8.2%	—	17.5%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	50.0%	15.9%	15.1%	15.1%	15.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	48.7%	12.8%	11.5%	—	14.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	58.0%	14.1%	5.0%	7.0%	10.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	44.4%	12.4%	6.7%	—	8.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	50.0%	11.5%	7.3%	4.7%	7.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	3.4%	9.2%	8.0%	—	5.6%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	4.1%	11.7%	4.4%	3.4%	4.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.9%	12.3%	5.3%	—	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	78.8°F	2.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	76.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	72.9°F	4.3°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	70.9°F	5.7°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	71.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	70.9°F	4.3°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗