KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

86%

54%

38%

20%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.5¢Risks 59.50u

HRESNO 40.5¢Risks 40.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.50u · HRES −40.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00	50.8%	90.2%	86.6%	82.3%	57.7%
2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00	50.8%	90.2%	86.6%	82.3%	57.7%
2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00	50.8%	90.2%	86.6%	82.3%	61.2%
2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00	50.8%	90.2%	87.7%	82.3%	61.2%
2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00	50.8%	90.2%	87.7%	82.3%	61.2%
2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00	50.8%	90.2%	87.7%	82.3%	61.2%
2026-09-11T07:44:14+00:00	42.9%	90.2%	87.7%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00	42.9%	90.2%	87.7%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00	42.9%	90.2%	87.7%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00	42.9%	90.2%	87.7%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00	42.9%	90.2%	87.7%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-09-11T11:29:54+00:00	42.9%	98.7%	83.9%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	42.9%	98.7%	83.9%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-09-11T13:00:08+00:00	42.9%	98.7%	83.9%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-09-11T13:45:21+00:00	36.0%	98.7%	83.9%	34.6%	61.2%
2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00	36.0%	99.2%	83.9%	34.6%	62.1%
2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00	36.0%	98.8%	83.9%	34.6%	62.1%
2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00	36.0%	98.8%	83.9%	34.6%	62.1%
2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00	36.0%	98.8%	83.9%	34.6%	54.1%
2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00	36.0%	98.8%	85.8%	34.6%	54.1%
2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00	36.0%	98.8%	85.8%	34.6%	54.1%
2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00	36.0%	98.8%	85.8%	34.6%	54.1%
2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00	49.1%	98.8%	85.8%	20.2%	54.1%
2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00	49.1%	98.8%	85.8%	20.2%	54.1%
2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00	49.1%	98.8%	85.8%	20.2%	54.1%
2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00	49.1%	98.8%	85.8%	20.2%	54.1%
2026-09-11T22:47:01+00:00	49.1%	98.8%	85.8%	20.2%	54.1%
2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00	49.1%	98.8%	85.8%	20.2%	54.1%
2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00	49.1%	98.8%	85.8%	20.2%	54.1%
2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00	49.1%	98.8%	85.8%	20.2%	54.1%
2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00	37.7%	98.8%	85.8%	20.2%	54.1%
2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00	37.7%	98.8%	85.8%	20.2%	54.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	79.1°F	2.0°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	78.4°F	3.6°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	75.8°F	7.2°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
ICON	54%	74.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	73.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	70.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 11 · 03:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗