KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

86%

54%

38%

20%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.5¢Risks 59.50u

HRESNO 40.5¢Risks 40.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.50u · HRES −40.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	—	—	—	86.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	46.9%	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	99.2%	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	96.2%	45.8%	—	92.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	96.8%	98.2%	—	87.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	44.7%	97.0%	97.5%	—	96.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	98.9%	97.8%	99.3%	—	93.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	55.7%	98.1%	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	70.0%	98.8%	98.5%	—	91.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	68.9%	99.1%	—	—	65.8%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	44.8%	67.0%	16.7%	—	58.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	58.9%	95.7%	—	—	6.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	46.3%	45.4%	61.8%	20.9%	69.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	59.4%	51.9%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	57.7%	8.2%	51.9%	—	34.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	55.0%	5.4%	—	—	21.9%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	50.0%	9.0%	21.9%	—	17.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	31.6%	5.2%	—	—	9.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	24.7%	3.5%	6.2%	—	8.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	25.8%	4.0%	4.2%	—	7.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	27.0%	4.2%	5.7%	4.5%	6.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	15.2%	3.3%	2.3%	—	6.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	26.6%	5.2%	4.9%	4.9%	4.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	24.8%	3.7%	3.2%	—	4.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	31.9%	4.0%	1.0%	1.6%	2.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	20.1%	3.2%	1.4%	—	1.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	23.4%	2.7%	1.5%	0.8%	1.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.5%	1.8%	1.5%	—	0.9%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.6%	2.4%	0.6%	0.4%	0.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	2.3%	0.7%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	79.1°F	2.0°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	78.4°F	3.6°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	75.8°F	7.2°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
ICON	54%	74.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	73.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	70.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 11 · 03:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗