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KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 08 · 14:09 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
76%
HRES
57%
ICON
52%
WN2
44%
AIFS
26%
Consensus
53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.65u
VS
AIFSNO 49.4¢Risks 49.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.35u · AIFS −49.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.3% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.5% · 2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.5% · 2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.5% · 2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.5% · 2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.5% · 2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.5% · 2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.8% · 2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.8% · 2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.3% · 2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.3% · 2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.3% · 2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.3% · 2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.3% · 2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.3% · 2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.3% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.3% · 2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00IFS HRES: 94.1% · 2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00IFS HRES: 94.1% · 2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00IFS HRES: 94.1% · 2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00IFS HRES: 94.1% · 2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00IFS HRES: 94.1% · 2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00ICON: 51.2% · 2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00ICON: 51.2% · 2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00ICON: 51.2% · 2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00ICON: 51.2% · 2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00ICON: 51.2% · 2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:0009-08 03:3809-08 08:5409-08 14:09
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:0029.3%91.3%70.8%94.1%51.2%
2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:0029.3%91.3%70.8%94.1%51.2%
2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:0029.3%91.3%69.3%94.1%51.2%
2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:0029.3%91.3%69.3%94.1%51.2%
2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:0029.3%91.3%69.3%94.1%51.2%
2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:0013.3%91.3%69.3%57.1%52.4%
2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:0013.3%91.3%69.3%57.1%52.4%
2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:0013.3%91.3%69.3%57.1%52.4%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:0013.3%91.3%69.3%57.1%52.4%
2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:0013.3%75.5%69.3%57.1%52.4%
2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:0013.3%75.5%43.8%57.1%52.4%
2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:0013.3%75.5%43.8%57.1%52.4%
2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:0013.3%75.5%43.8%57.1%52.4%
2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:0025.8%75.5%43.8%57.1%52.4%
2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:0025.8%75.5%43.8%57.1%52.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble76%——Not retainedPending
National Blend60%——Not retainedPending
IFS HRES57%——Not retainedPending
NWS forecast53%——Not retainedPending
ICON52%——Not retainedPending
WeatherNext 244%——Not retainedPending
AIFS Single26%——Not retainedPending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗