KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 08 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

57%

52%

44%

26%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.65u

AIFSNO 49.4¢Risks 49.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.35u · AIFS −49.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	75.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	57.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	29.1%	—	—	71.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	53.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	97.0%	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	89.5%	26.3%	—	82.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	90.4%	93.8%	—	72.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	23.9%	90.3%	91.6%	—	89.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	95.3%	92.2%	96.9%	—	81.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	31.9%	92.7%	—	—	46.7%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	45.8%	94.7%	93.9%	—	76.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	44.0%	95.7%	—	—	40.7%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	21.4%	41.3%	5.2%	—	33.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	32.6%	85.0%	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	21.6%	20.9%	34.7%	6.6%	42.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	31.8%	25.3%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	29.6%	1.7%	24.7%	—	13.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	26.5%	0.9%	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	21.9%	1.7%	6.1%	—	4.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	10.1%	0.8%	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	6.6%	0.4%	0.9%	—	1.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	6.7%	0.5%	0.5%	—	1.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	6.8%	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%	0.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.7%	0.3%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.9%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.9%	0.3%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.0%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	76%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	60%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	52%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗