KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Sep 10 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

12%

11%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 14.4¢Risks 14.40u

AIFSNO 85.6¢Risks 85.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +85.60u · AIFS −85.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T15:08:24+00:00	4.5%	51.7%	49.0%	80.3%	87.2%
2026-09-09T15:53:33+00:00	4.5%	51.7%	49.0%	80.3%	87.2%
2026-09-09T16:38:38+00:00	4.5%	51.7%	49.0%	80.3%	33.8%
2026-09-09T17:23:44+00:00	4.5%	51.7%	17.3%	80.3%	33.8%
2026-09-09T18:08:51+00:00	4.5%	51.7%	17.3%	80.3%	33.8%
2026-09-09T18:53:56+00:00	4.5%	51.7%	17.3%	80.3%	33.8%
2026-09-09T19:39:02+00:00	6.5%	51.7%	17.3%	81.7%	33.8%
2026-09-09T20:24:12+00:00	6.5%	51.7%	17.3%	81.7%	33.8%
2026-09-09T21:09:17+00:00	6.5%	51.7%	17.3%	81.7%	33.8%
2026-09-09T21:54:22+00:00	6.5%	51.7%	17.3%	81.7%	33.8%
2026-09-09T22:39:30+00:00	6.5%	51.7%	17.3%	81.7%	33.8%
2026-09-09T23:24:35+00:00	6.5%	51.7%	25.7%	81.7%	33.8%
2026-09-10T00:09:40+00:00	6.5%	51.7%	25.7%	81.7%	33.8%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	6.5%	51.7%	25.7%	81.7%	33.8%
2026-09-10T01:39:53+00:00	4.7%	51.7%	25.7%	81.7%	33.8%
2026-09-10T02:25:00+00:00	4.7%	45.0%	25.7%	81.7%	33.8%
2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00	4.7%	45.0%	25.7%	81.7%	33.8%
2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00	4.7%	45.0%	25.7%	81.7%	33.8%
2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00	4.7%	45.0%	25.7%	81.7%	8.4%
2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00	4.7%	45.0%	13.8%	81.7%	8.4%
2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00	4.7%	45.0%	13.8%	81.7%	8.4%
2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:00	4.7%	45.0%	13.8%	81.7%	8.4%
2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00	3.4%	45.0%	13.8%	11.5%	8.4%
2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00	3.4%	45.0%	13.8%	11.5%	8.4%
2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00	3.4%	45.0%	13.8%	11.5%	8.4%
2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00	3.4%	45.0%	13.8%	11.5%	8.4%
2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00	3.4%	45.0%	13.8%	11.5%	8.4%
2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00	3.4%	25.6%	10.3%	11.5%	8.4%
2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00	3.4%	25.6%	10.3%	11.5%	8.4%
2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00	3.4%	25.6%	10.3%	11.5%	8.4%
2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00	3.2%	25.6%	10.3%	11.5%	8.4%
2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00	3.2%	25.6%	10.8%	11.5%	8.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
National Blend	34%	78.7°F	6.8°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	79.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	75.4°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	76.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	75.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	72.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗