KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Sep 10 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

12%

11%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 14.4¢Risks 14.40u

AIFSNO 85.6¢Risks 85.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +85.60u · AIFS −85.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	11.9%	—	—	47.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	88.6%	—	—	55.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	70.8%	9.0%	—	59.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	71.5%	79.0%	—	44.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	7.0%	70.4%	73.0%	—	67.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	81.1%	73.2%	85.5%	—	54.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	9.9%	73.7%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	17.3%	78.1%	76.2%	—	45.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	15.7%	80.5%	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.7%	13.6%	0.6%	—	9.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	8.8%	55.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	4.3%	4.1%	9.4%	0.8%	13.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	7.7%	5.3%	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	6.5%	0.1%	4.9%	—	1.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.1%	0.0%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.5%	0.1%	0.5%	—	0.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
National Blend	34%	78.7°F	6.8°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	79.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	75.4°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	76.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	75.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	72.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗