KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

38%

34%

21%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 28.6¢Risks 28.60u

ICONNO 71.4¢Risks 71.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +71.40u · ICON −71.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	22.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	28.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	9.0%	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	84.9%	—	—	48.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	64.4%	6.5%	—	52.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	65.0%	73.4%	—	37.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	4.8%	63.5%	66.3%	—	60.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	75.2%	66.3%	80.5%	—	46.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	6.8%	66.6%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	12.5%	71.4%	69.2%	—	37.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	11.1%	74.0%	—	—	9.5%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.9%	9.4%	0.3%	—	6.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.7%	46.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.6%	2.5%	6.1%	0.4%	9.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.8%	3.2%	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.0%	0.0%	2.9%	—	1.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.9%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	51%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	24%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	6%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗