KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 09 · 14:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

30%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.9¢Risks 19.90u

AIFSNO 80.1¢Risks 80.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.10u · AIFS −80.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00	4.8%	3.1%	1.1%	7.6%	1.2%
2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00	4.8%	3.1%	1.1%	7.6%	1.2%
2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00	4.8%	3.1%	1.1%	7.6%	1.2%
2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00	4.8%	3.1%	1.1%	7.6%	1.2%
2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00	4.8%	3.1%	1.1%	7.6%	1.2%
2026-09-07T17:07:08+00:00	4.8%	2.4%	3.5%	7.6%	1.2%
2026-09-07T17:52:13+00:00	4.8%	2.4%	3.5%	7.6%	1.2%
2026-09-07T18:37:18+00:00	4.8%	2.4%	3.5%	7.6%	1.2%
2026-09-07T19:22:22+00:00	4.8%	2.4%	3.5%	7.6%	1.2%
2026-09-07T20:07:30+00:00	0.5%	2.4%	3.5%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-07T20:52:35+00:00	0.5%	2.4%	3.5%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	0.5%	2.4%	3.5%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-07T22:22:44+00:00	0.5%	2.4%	3.5%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-07T23:07:49+00:00	0.5%	2.4%	2.4%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-07T23:52:54+00:00	0.5%	2.4%	2.4%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-08T00:37:59+00:00	0.5%	2.4%	2.4%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-08T01:23:04+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	2.4%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-08T02:08:09+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	2.4%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	2.4%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	2.4%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	2.4%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	2.2%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	2.2%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	2.2%	34.8%	11.7%
2026-09-08T19:35:43+00:00	10.3%	1.2%	0.5%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-08T20:20:49+00:00	10.3%	1.2%	0.5%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-08T21:05:54+00:00	10.3%	1.2%	0.5%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-08T21:50:58+00:00	10.3%	1.2%	0.5%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	10.3%	1.2%	0.5%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-08T23:21:09+00:00	10.3%	1.2%	5.3%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-09T00:06:14+00:00	10.3%	1.2%	5.3%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-09T00:51:21+00:00	10.3%	1.2%	5.3%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-09T01:36:26+00:00	1.7%	1.2%	5.3%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-09T02:21:31+00:00	1.7%	1.2%	5.3%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00	1.7%	1.2%	5.3%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00	1.7%	1.2%	5.3%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00	1.7%	1.2%	5.3%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00	1.7%	1.2%	3.0%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00	1.7%	1.2%	3.0%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00	1.7%	1.2%	3.0%	43.4%	3.9%
2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	3.0%	30.5%	39.7%
2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	3.0%	30.5%	39.7%
2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	3.0%	30.5%	39.7%
2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	3.0%	30.5%	39.7%
2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	3.0%	30.5%	39.7%
2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	2.5%	30.5%	39.7%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	2.5%	30.5%	39.7%
2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	2.5%	30.5%	39.7%
2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	2.5%	30.5%	39.7%
2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	2.5%	30.4%	39.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	40%	88.0°F	5.7°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	86.5°F	5.9°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	80.5°F	6.7°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	81.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	80.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗