KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 09 · 14:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

30%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.9¢Risks 19.90u

AIFSNO 80.1¢Risks 80.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.10u · AIFS −80.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	43.9%	—	—	11.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	19.4%	0.3%	—	11.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	18.4%	25.4%	—	5.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.1%	16.0%	17.9%	—	14.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	23.6%	16.4%	29.5%	—	6.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	15.8%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	18.4%	16.8%	—	3.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	19.6%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	40%	88.0°F	5.7°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	86.5°F	5.9°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	80.5°F	6.7°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	81.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	80.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗