KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 09 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

98%

98%

92%

83%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 91.0¢Risks 45.50u

EPSNO 9.0¢Risks 4.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.50u · EPS −4.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T02:21:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00	30.6%	82.9%	47.5%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00	30.6%	82.9%	47.5%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00	30.6%	82.9%	47.5%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00	93.8%	82.9%	47.5%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00	93.9%	82.9%	47.5%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T14:54:39+00:00	93.9%	83.1%	47.5%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T15:39:46+00:00	93.9%	83.1%	47.5%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T15:49:08+00:00	93.9%	83.1%	47.5%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T16:00:06+00:00	93.9%	83.1%	47.5%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T16:45:14+00:00	93.9%	83.1%	47.5%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T17:06:41+00:00	93.9%	83.1%	67.9%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T17:20:26+00:00	93.9%	83.1%	67.9%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T18:05:34+00:00	93.9%	83.1%	67.9%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T18:50:38+00:00	93.9%	83.1%	67.9%	96.8%	19.0%
2026-09-08T19:35:43+00:00	99.4%	83.1%	67.9%	98.2%	92.2%
2026-09-08T20:20:49+00:00	99.4%	83.1%	67.9%	98.2%	92.2%
2026-09-08T21:05:54+00:00	99.4%	83.1%	67.9%	98.2%	92.2%
2026-09-08T21:50:58+00:00	99.4%	83.1%	67.9%	98.2%	92.2%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	99.4%	83.1%	67.9%	98.2%	92.2%
2026-09-08T23:21:09+00:00	99.4%	83.1%	97.9%	98.2%	92.2%
2026-09-09T00:06:14+00:00	99.4%	83.1%	97.9%	98.2%	92.2%
2026-09-09T00:51:21+00:00	99.4%	83.1%	97.9%	98.2%	92.2%
2026-09-09T01:36:26+00:00	98.9%	83.1%	97.9%	98.2%	92.2%
2026-09-09T02:21:31+00:00	98.9%	83.1%	97.9%	98.2%	92.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	99%	90.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	90.4°F	6.1°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	87.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	92%	91.4°F	9.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	82.3°F	5.0°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.3°F	8.9°F	2026-09-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 08 · 11:09 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78.3°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗