KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 09 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

98%

98%

92%

83%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 91.0¢Risks 45.50u

EPSNO 9.0¢Risks 4.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.50u · EPS −4.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	52.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	43.1%	—	—	80.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	7.3%	—	—	84.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	75.6%	—	—	88.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	94.6%	48.6%	—	94.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	96.7%	96.2%	94.5%	—	95.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	94.4%	98.9%	96.7%	—	95.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	74.5%	99.5%	83.2%	—	86.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	65.9%	3.6%	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	95.7%	99.0%	97.5%	43.4%	91.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	93.9%	99.4%	—	—	85.8%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	96.8%	75.9%	86.9%	—	67.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	59.8%	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	75.6%	36.4%	85.1%	—	67.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	88.2%	54.7%	—	—	42.5%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	86.9%	52.9%	76.8%	—	54.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	78.1%	61.8%	—	—	65.6%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	80.3%	62.2%	69.7%	0.0%	78.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	81.7%	66.5%	—	—	76.3%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	53.3%	69.9%	80.2%	—	70.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.2%	59.0%	65.4%	0.0%	—	78.6%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	57.0%	0.0%	76.7%	57.0%	74.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	64.1%	73.7%	78.4%	—	65.3%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.1%	64.6%	69.2%	74.4%	0.0%	64.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	72.0%	65.1%	80.0%	—	69.8%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	78.0%	76.0%	74.9%	55.4%	73.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	89.6%	74.7%	77.9%	—	72.4%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.8%	90.5%	75.5%	84.6%	61.4%	80.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	84.7%	80.8%	81.9%	—	76.4%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	83.9%	88.3%	85.8%	77.4%	79.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	92.7%	92.1%	87.7%	—	84.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	99%	90.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	90.4°F	6.1°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	87.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	92%	91.4°F	9.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	82.3°F	5.0°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.3°F	8.9°F	2026-09-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 08 · 11:09 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78.3°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗