KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Sep 11 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

57%

41%

41%

29%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 59.0¢Risks 59.00u

EPSNO 41.0¢Risks 41.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +41.00u · EPS −41.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00	94.3%	56.4%	88.1%	92.6%	84.4%
2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00	94.3%	56.4%	88.1%	92.6%	84.4%
2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00	94.3%	56.4%	88.1%	92.6%	84.4%
2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00	94.3%	56.4%	84.9%	92.6%	84.4%
2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00	94.3%	56.4%	84.9%	92.6%	84.4%
2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00	94.3%	56.4%	84.9%	92.6%	84.4%
2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00	83.8%	56.4%	84.9%	86.7%	91.0%
2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00	83.8%	56.4%	84.9%	86.7%	91.0%
2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00	83.8%	56.4%	84.9%	86.7%	91.0%
2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00	83.8%	56.4%	84.9%	86.7%	91.0%
2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00	83.8%	56.4%	84.9%	86.7%	91.0%
2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00	83.8%	56.4%	88.3%	86.7%	91.0%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	83.8%	56.4%	88.3%	86.7%	91.0%
2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00	83.8%	56.4%	88.3%	86.7%	91.0%
2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00	62.4%	56.4%	88.3%	86.7%	91.0%
2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00	62.4%	56.4%	88.8%	86.7%	91.0%
2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00	77.6%	45.9%	53.9%	87.7%	86.7%
2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00	77.6%	45.9%	53.9%	87.7%	86.7%
2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00	77.6%	45.9%	53.9%	87.7%	89.0%
2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00	77.6%	45.9%	56.7%	87.7%	89.0%
2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00	77.6%	45.9%	56.7%	87.7%	89.0%
2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00	77.6%	45.9%	56.7%	87.7%	89.0%
2026-09-11T07:44:14+00:00	64.8%	45.9%	56.7%	41.4%	89.0%
2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00	64.8%	45.9%	56.7%	41.4%	89.0%
2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00	64.8%	45.9%	56.7%	41.4%	89.0%
2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00	64.8%	45.9%	56.7%	41.4%	89.0%
2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00	64.8%	45.9%	56.7%	41.4%	89.0%
2026-09-11T11:29:54+00:00	64.8%	26.3%	40.8%	41.4%	89.0%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	64.8%	26.3%	40.8%	41.4%	89.0%
2026-09-11T13:00:08+00:00	64.8%	26.3%	40.8%	41.4%	89.0%
2026-09-11T13:45:21+00:00	56.7%	26.3%	40.8%	41.4%	89.0%
2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00	56.7%	29.1%	40.8%	41.4%	88.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	89%	87.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	82.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	82.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	80.4°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	80.6°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	78.7°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗