KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Sep 11 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

57%

41%

41%

29%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 59.0¢Risks 59.00u

EPSNO 41.0¢Risks 41.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +41.00u · EPS −41.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	21.1%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	1.8%	—	—	64.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	50.7%	—	—	70.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	81.6%	23.0%	—	82.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	86.5%	85.2%	80.6%	—	82.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	79.5%	93.7%	85.8%	—	82.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	44.4%	96.2%	56.4%	—	62.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	0.4%	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	81.0%	93.2%	87.1%	15.7%	70.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	75.4%	95.3%	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	83.3%	43.0%	59.6%	—	33.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	25.7%	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	40.9%	10.2%	54.6%	—	31.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	59.4%	20.3%	—	—	12.7%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	55.8%	18.3%	40.4%	—	19.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	41.1%	24.1%	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	42.8%	23.5%	30.3%	0.0%	40.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	43.7%	26.2%	—	—	36.5%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	15.5%	28.2%	40.3%	—	29.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	18.3%	23.1%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	16.0%	0.0%	33.1%	16.0%	31.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	19.9%	28.3%	33.6%	—	20.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	19.1%	22.7%	27.6%	0.0%	19.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	23.8%	18.2%	32.5%	—	21.9%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	28.4%	26.2%	25.1%	11.3%	24.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	44.4%	23.2%	26.5%	—	21.1%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	44.2%	22.2%	33.1%	12.2%	28.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	31.1%	26.0%	27.2%	—	21.3%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	27.6%	34.6%	30.3%	20.3%	22.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	41.8%	40.2%	30.9%	—	25.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	89%	87.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	82.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	82.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	80.4°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	80.6°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	78.7°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗