KPIT / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

98%

97%

91%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 94.5¢Risks 23.61u

EPSNO 5.5¢Risks 1.39u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +1.39u · EPS −1.39u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00	98.9%	91.4%	89.3%	50.0%	77.8%
2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00	98.9%	91.4%	89.3%	50.0%	77.8%
2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00	98.9%	91.4%	89.3%	50.0%	77.8%
2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00	98.9%	91.4%	89.3%	50.0%	77.8%
2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00	98.9%	91.4%	89.3%	50.0%	77.8%
2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00	98.9%	91.4%	95.4%	50.0%	77.8%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	98.9%	91.4%	95.4%	50.0%	77.8%
2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00	98.9%	91.4%	95.4%	50.0%	77.8%
2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00	98.2%	91.4%	95.4%	50.0%	77.8%
2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00	98.2%	91.4%	95.4%	50.0%	78.1%
2026-09-09T15:08:24+00:00	98.2%	98.7%	95.4%	50.0%	78.1%
2026-09-09T15:53:33+00:00	98.2%	98.7%	95.4%	50.0%	78.1%
2026-09-09T16:38:38+00:00	98.2%	98.7%	95.4%	50.0%	68.5%
2026-09-09T17:23:44+00:00	98.2%	98.7%	92.1%	50.0%	68.5%
2026-09-09T18:08:51+00:00	98.2%	98.7%	92.1%	50.0%	68.5%
2026-09-09T18:53:56+00:00	98.2%	98.7%	92.1%	50.0%	68.5%
2026-09-09T19:39:02+00:00	98.0%	98.7%	92.1%	76.3%	76.3%
2026-09-09T20:24:12+00:00	98.0%	98.7%	92.1%	76.3%	76.3%
2026-09-09T21:09:17+00:00	98.0%	98.7%	92.1%	76.3%	76.3%
2026-09-09T21:54:22+00:00	98.0%	98.7%	92.1%	76.3%	76.3%
2026-09-09T22:39:30+00:00	98.0%	98.7%	92.1%	76.3%	76.3%
2026-09-09T23:24:35+00:00	98.0%	98.7%	90.8%	76.3%	76.3%
2026-09-10T00:09:40+00:00	98.0%	98.7%	90.8%	76.3%	76.3%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	98.0%	98.7%	90.8%	76.3%	76.3%
2026-09-10T01:39:53+00:00	99.0%	98.7%	90.8%	76.3%	76.3%
2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00	96.2%	91.9%	92.1%	97.2%	98.2%
2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00	96.2%	91.9%	92.1%	97.2%	98.2%
2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00	96.2%	91.9%	92.1%	97.2%	98.1%
2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00	96.2%	91.9%	96.9%	97.2%	98.1%
2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00	96.2%	91.9%	96.9%	97.2%	98.1%
2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00	96.2%	91.9%	96.9%	97.2%	98.1%
2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00	95.8%	91.9%	96.9%	97.0%	98.1%
2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00	95.8%	91.9%	96.9%	97.0%	98.1%
2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00	95.8%	91.9%	96.9%	97.0%	98.1%
2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00	95.8%	91.9%	96.9%	97.0%	98.1%
2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00	95.8%	91.9%	96.9%	97.0%	98.1%
2026-09-10T23:28:02+00:00	95.8%	91.9%	97.8%	97.0%	98.1%
2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00	95.8%	91.9%	97.8%	97.0%	98.1%
2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00	95.8%	92.9%	97.8%	97.0%	98.1%
2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00	98.0%	90.8%	97.8%	97.0%	98.1%
2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00	98.0%	90.8%	97.8%	97.0%	98.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	98%	91.4°F	6.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	88.5°F	5.4°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	86.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	90.0°F	6.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	82.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	78.5°F	6.0°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260916-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 09 · 07:37 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗