KPIT / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

98%

97%

91%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 94.5¢Risks 23.61u

EPSNO 5.5¢Risks 1.39u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +1.39u · EPS −1.39u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	31.3%	—	—	58.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	81.5%	—	—	61.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	68.2%	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	90.1%	54.9%	32.3%	76.5%	—	66.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	97.8%	98.9%	84.8%	—	81.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	98.1%	97.9%	97.6%	66.3%	88.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	75.3%	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	96.9%	95.7%	97.5%	—	93.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	16.3%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	97.0%	85.2%	97.5%	—	93.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	97.8%	94.1%	—	—	92.8%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.9%	98.8%	94.1%	90.6%	—	96.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	99.0%	91.5%	—	—	97.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	65.3%	84.5%	74.1%	—	94.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	99.0%	94.7%	—	—	95.6%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	7.2%	92.5%	84.7%	—	97.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	97.5%	95.6%	—	—	97.2%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	4.4%	—	90.6%	64.1%	95.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	98.0%	66.5%	—	—	95.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	99.1%	66.9%	94.1%	—	97.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	99.1%	96.9%	0.3%	—	98.2%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	99.2%	71.0%	98.6%	96.0%	99.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	99.9%	91.8%	93.8%	—	99.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	99.8%	99.3%	98.2%	95.1%	99.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	99.9%	97.2%	99.4%	—	99.6%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	99.9%	88.0%	96.3%	98.4%	99.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	93.3%	99.9%	99.9%	99.7%	—	99.9%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	100.0%	99.9%	97.5%	89.8%	99.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	100.0%	99.9%	88.8%	—	99.5%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	96.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	98%	91.4°F	6.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	88.5°F	5.4°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	86.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	90.0°F	6.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	82.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	78.5°F	6.0°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260916-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 09 · 07:37 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗