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KPIT / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
99%
AIFS
96%
WN2
96%
EPS
77%
ICON
72%
Consensus
93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 85.2¢Risks 85.25u
VS
ICONNO 14.7¢Risks 14.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +14.75u · ICON −14.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-10T23:28:03+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-10T23:28:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.2% · 2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.5% · 2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-09-10T23:28:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00IFS HRES: 98.6% · 2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00IFS HRES: 98.6% · 2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00IFS HRES: 98.6% · 2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00IFS HRES: 98.6% · 2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00IFS HRES: 98.6% · 2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00IFS HRES: 98.6% · 2026-09-10T23:28:03+00:00IFS HRES: 98.6% · 2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00IFS HRES: 98.6% · 2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00IFS HRES: 98.6% · 2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00IFS HRES: 98.6% · 2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00ICON: 75.6% · 2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00ICON: 75.6% · 2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00ICON: 75.6% · 2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-10T23:28:03+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:0009-10 11:2609-10 18:5709-11 02:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:0098.3%78.2%80.7%97.3%75.3%
2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:0098.3%78.2%80.7%97.3%75.3%
2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:0098.3%78.2%80.7%97.3%75.3%
2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:0099.3%78.2%80.7%97.3%75.3%
2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:0099.3%78.2%80.6%97.3%75.6%
2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:0099.3%78.2%80.6%97.3%75.6%
2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:0099.3%78.2%80.6%97.3%75.6%
2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:0099.3%78.2%80.6%97.3%71.9%
2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:0099.3%78.2%90.1%97.3%71.9%
2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:0099.3%78.2%90.1%97.3%71.9%
2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:0099.3%78.2%90.1%97.3%71.9%
2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:0099.6%78.2%90.1%98.6%71.9%
2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:0099.6%78.2%90.1%98.6%71.9%
2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:0099.6%78.2%90.1%98.6%71.9%
2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:0099.6%78.2%90.1%98.6%71.9%
2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:0099.6%78.2%90.1%98.6%71.9%
2026-09-10T23:28:03+00:0099.6%78.2%95.6%98.6%71.9%
2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:0099.6%78.2%95.6%98.6%71.9%
2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:0099.6%79.5%95.6%98.6%71.9%
2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:0096.4%76.6%95.6%98.6%71.9%
2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:0096.4%76.6%95.6%98.6%71.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES99%91.0°F6.1°F2026-09-10 12:00Pending
AIFS Single96%87.4°F5.5°F2026-09-10 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 296%85.6°F4.7°F2026-09-10 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble77%80.4°F4.0°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
ICON72%83.2°F9.8°F2026-09-10 12:00Pending
National Blend54%78.4°F8.2°F2026-09-10 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260917-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 10 · 11:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗