KPIT / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

96%

96%

77%

72%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 85.2¢Risks 85.25u

ICONNO 14.7¢Risks 14.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +14.75u · ICON −14.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	21.8%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	73.0%	—	—	72.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	37.2%	—	—	40.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	68.2%	53.4%	—	—	65.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	61.8%	30.5%	68.3%	23.5%	83.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	60.8%	90.4%	70.9%	—	76.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	94.6%	98.9%	79.5%	—	87.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	99.0%	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	98.5%	79.4%	97.8%	—	95.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	72.4%	94.9%	—	—	92.4%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	95.7%	40.9%	88.4%	—	94.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	96.2%	98.2%	—	—	94.8%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	20.2%	42.2%	—	97.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	62.4%	50.9%	—	—	7.8%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	69.5%	—	96.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.8%	65.7%	63.0%	—	—	96.6%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	94.6%	91.8%	52.9%	—	97.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	86.5%	86.5%	—	—	96.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	78.1%	85.5%	50.0%	11.3%	97.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	63.5%	77.2%	—	—	98.3%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	37.1%	66.9%	32.1%	39.2%	95.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	70.4%	83.9%	9.2%	—	95.5%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	53.5%	99.3%	66.9%	—	92.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	48.8%	99.3%	35.9%	—	92.6%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	50.0%	95.1%	62.3%	33.1%	98.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	59.0%	67.5%	66.3%	—	93.6%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	66.9%	98.4%	43.3%	14.9%	91.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	68.8%	76.8%	71.2%	—	91.9%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	78.8%	99.2%	92.7%	48.5%	95.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	64.8%	99.7%	93.5%	—	97.6%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	54.7%	98.5%	85.8%	46.8%	95.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	71.9%	87.7%	75.9%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	99%	91.0°F	6.1°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	87.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	85.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	80.4°F	4.0°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	83.2°F	9.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.4°F	8.2°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260917-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 10 · 11:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗