KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

94%

89%

66%

58%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.5¢Risks 78.50u

HRESNO 21.5¢Risks 21.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.50u · HRES −21.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T11:29:54+00:00	82.7%	87.5%	97.7%	68.7%	41.1%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	82.7%	87.5%	97.7%	68.7%	41.1%
2026-09-11T13:00:08+00:00	82.7%	87.5%	97.7%	68.7%	41.1%
2026-09-11T13:45:21+00:00	93.6%	87.5%	97.7%	68.7%	41.1%
2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00	93.6%	88.8%	97.7%	68.7%	41.1%
2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00	93.6%	88.7%	97.7%	68.7%	41.1%
2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00	93.6%	88.7%	97.7%	68.7%	41.1%
2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00	93.6%	88.7%	97.7%	68.7%	65.8%
2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00	93.6%	88.7%	99.3%	68.7%	65.8%
2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00	93.6%	88.7%	99.3%	68.7%	65.8%
2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00	93.6%	88.7%	99.3%	68.7%	65.8%
2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00	90.7%	88.7%	99.3%	57.7%	65.8%
2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00	90.7%	88.7%	99.3%	57.7%	65.8%
2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00	90.7%	88.7%	99.3%	57.7%	65.8%
2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00	90.7%	88.7%	99.3%	57.7%	65.8%
2026-09-11T22:47:02+00:00	90.7%	88.7%	99.3%	57.7%	65.8%
2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00	90.7%	88.7%	99.3%	57.7%	65.8%
2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00	90.7%	88.7%	99.3%	57.7%	65.8%
2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00	90.7%	88.7%	99.3%	57.7%	65.8%
2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00	93.8%	88.7%	99.3%	57.7%	65.8%
2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00	93.8%	88.7%	99.3%	57.7%	65.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	85.3°F	4.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	82.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	79.3°F	4.8°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	77.5°F	9.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	74.7°F	6.2°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	74.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 11 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 74°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗