KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

94%

89%

66%

58%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.5¢Risks 78.50u

HRESNO 21.5¢Risks 21.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.50u · HRES −21.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	69.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	42.4%	—	—	78.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	59.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	56.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	36.0%	—	50.0%	63.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	14.7%	46.0%	—	—	72.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	50.0%	42.3%	54.9%	—	79.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	55.1%	88.3%	—	87.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	63.5%	80.0%	—	94.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	80.5%	72.6%	—	89.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	84.8%	—	81.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	84.8%	—	—	86.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	96.2%	75.9%	—	86.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	58.9%	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	90.2%	74.9%	—	75.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	60.3%	93.3%	—	—	67.4%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.7%	77.5%	85.3%	86.4%	—	66.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	80.3%	81.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	59.2%	83.7%	73.2%	—	67.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.4%	73.8%	78.0%	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	67.9%	82.4%	88.1%	69.9%	71.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	65.4%	79.4%	14.1%	—	74.2%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	81.0%	85.3%	83.2%	50.0%	78.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	76.6%	84.8%	82.5%	—	80.9%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	72.4%	84.1%	80.1%	—	82.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	75.2%	72.0%	86.5%	—	82.6%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	72.7%	80.0%	89.3%	52.7%	85.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	82.7%	91.3%	80.9%	—	82.7%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	93.7%	86.2%	87.0%	55.8%	87.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	85.6%	75.2%	89.5%	—	84.7%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	85.8%	71.0%	92.3%	39.1%	89.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	91.4%	77.2%	90.1%	—	86.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	85.3°F	4.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	82.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	79.3°F	4.8°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	77.5°F	9.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	74.7°F	6.2°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	74.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 11 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 74°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗