KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Sep 15 · 15:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

55%

49%

31%

26%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.9¢Risks 57.85u

ICONNO 42.1¢Risks 42.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.15u · ICON −42.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	47.6%	71.0%	85.1%	29.2%	37.1%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	47.6%	71.0%	85.1%	29.2%	37.1%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	47.6%	71.0%	85.1%	29.2%	37.1%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	47.6%	71.0%	85.1%	29.2%	37.1%
2026-09-13T19:55:07+00:00	34.4%	71.0%	85.1%	46.6%	37.1%
2026-09-13T20:40:14+00:00	34.4%	71.0%	85.1%	46.6%	37.1%
2026-09-13T21:25:18+00:00	34.4%	71.0%	85.1%	46.6%	37.1%
2026-09-13T22:10:23+00:00	34.4%	71.0%	85.1%	46.6%	37.1%
2026-09-13T22:55:27+00:00	34.4%	71.0%	78.1%	46.6%	37.1%
2026-09-13T23:40:33+00:00	34.4%	71.0%	78.1%	46.6%	37.1%
2026-09-14T00:25:38+00:00	34.4%	71.0%	78.1%	46.6%	37.1%
2026-09-14T01:10:45+00:00	34.4%	71.0%	78.1%	46.6%	37.1%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	56.4%	71.0%	78.1%	46.6%	37.1%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	56.4%	71.0%	78.1%	46.6%	37.1%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	56.4%	71.0%	78.1%	46.6%	37.1%
2026-09-14T15:28:35+00:00	52.5%	68.1%	86.1%	54.7%	29.2%
2026-09-14T16:13:49+00:00	52.5%	68.1%	86.1%	54.7%	29.2%
2026-09-14T16:58:55+00:00	52.5%	68.1%	84.7%	54.7%	29.2%
2026-09-14T17:44:01+00:00	52.5%	68.1%	84.7%	54.7%	29.2%
2026-09-14T18:29:09+00:00	52.5%	68.1%	84.7%	54.7%	29.2%
2026-09-14T19:14:14+00:00	52.5%	68.1%	84.7%	54.7%	29.2%
2026-09-14T19:59:19+00:00	55.9%	68.1%	84.7%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-14T20:44:25+00:00	55.9%	68.1%	84.7%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-14T21:29:30+00:00	55.9%	68.1%	84.7%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-14T22:14:35+00:00	55.9%	68.1%	84.7%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-14T22:59:40+00:00	55.9%	68.1%	86.5%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-14T23:44:48+00:00	55.9%	68.1%	86.5%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-15T00:29:55+00:00	55.9%	68.1%	86.5%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-15T01:15:03+00:00	55.9%	68.1%	86.5%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-15T02:00:08+00:00	50.8%	68.1%	86.5%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-15T02:45:13+00:00	50.8%	68.1%	86.5%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00	50.8%	68.1%	86.5%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00	50.8%	68.1%	86.5%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00	50.8%	68.1%	90.5%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00	50.8%	68.1%	90.5%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	50.8%	68.1%	90.5%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00	50.8%	68.1%	90.5%	44.5%	19.9%
2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00	58.9%	68.1%	90.5%	31.4%	26.0%
2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00	58.9%	68.1%	90.5%	31.4%	26.0%
2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00	58.9%	68.1%	90.5%	31.4%	26.0%
2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00	58.9%	68.1%	90.5%	31.4%	26.0%
2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00	58.9%	47.7%	89.6%	31.4%	26.0%
2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00	58.9%	47.7%	89.6%	31.4%	26.0%
2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00	58.9%	47.7%	89.6%	31.4%	26.0%
2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00	58.9%	47.7%	89.6%	31.4%	26.0%
2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00	55.4%	47.7%	89.6%	36.8%	26.1%
2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00	55.4%	47.7%	89.6%	36.8%	26.1%
2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00	55.4%	48.9%	89.6%	31.4%	26.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	84.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	80.1°F	4.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	79.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	78.8°F	3.2°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	77.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 13 · 16:54 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗