KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Sep 15 · 15:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

55%

49%

31%

26%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.9¢Risks 57.85u

ICONNO 42.1¢Risks 42.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.15u · ICON −42.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	14.1%	—	—	46.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	9.0%	—	16.4%	26.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	1.9%	13.2%	—	—	33.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	14.5%	10.5%	17.5%	—	40.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	16.5%	53.6%	—	52.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	21.1%	38.0%	—	68.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	36.7%	27.4%	—	51.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	40.9%	—	36.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	39.8%	—	—	43.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	67.8%	26.9%	—	42.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	13.0%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	46.3%	23.7%	—	24.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	12.2%	52.8%	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	24.0%	33.9%	35.7%	—	14.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	25.7%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	9.4%	28.5%	17.6%	—	13.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	16.9%	20.5%	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	11.9%	23.8%	32.1%	13.1%	14.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	9.7%	19.0%	0.3%	—	14.8%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	19.1%	24.2%	21.5%	4.0%	16.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	13.9%	21.6%	19.1%	—	17.5%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	10.0%	19.1%	15.1%	—	17.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	10.3%	8.7%	20.0%	—	15.8%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	7.9%	12.0%	22.0%	2.6%	16.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	12.4%	23.2%	11.1%	—	12.4%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	25.6%	13.8%	14.6%	2.1%	15.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	11.2%	5.6%	15.3%	—	10.5%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	9.6%	3.4%	17.1%	0.4%	12.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	13.2%	4.1%	11.5%	—	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	84.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	80.1°F	4.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	79.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	78.8°F	3.2°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	77.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 13 · 16:54 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗