KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

23%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 19.9¢Risks 19.90u

ICONNO 80.1¢Risks 80.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +80.10u · ICON −80.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T07:44:15+00:00	19.2%	13.0%	42.2%	12.7%	10.7%
2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00	19.2%	13.0%	42.2%	12.7%	10.7%
2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00	19.2%	13.0%	42.2%	12.7%	10.7%
2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00	19.2%	13.0%	42.2%	12.7%	10.7%
2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00	19.2%	13.0%	42.2%	12.7%	10.7%
2026-09-11T11:29:54+00:00	19.2%	19.3%	45.8%	12.7%	10.7%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	19.2%	19.3%	45.8%	12.7%	10.7%
2026-09-11T13:00:08+00:00	19.2%	19.3%	45.8%	12.7%	10.7%
2026-09-11T13:45:21+00:00	38.6%	19.3%	45.8%	12.7%	10.7%
2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00	38.6%	21.8%	45.8%	12.8%	10.7%
2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00	38.6%	19.1%	45.8%	12.8%	10.7%
2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00	38.6%	19.1%	45.8%	12.8%	10.7%
2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00	38.6%	19.1%	45.8%	12.8%	27.1%
2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00	38.6%	19.1%	64.0%	12.8%	27.1%
2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00	38.6%	19.1%	64.0%	12.8%	27.1%
2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00	38.6%	19.1%	64.0%	12.8%	27.1%
2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00	31.2%	19.1%	64.0%	7.6%	27.1%
2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00	31.2%	19.1%	64.0%	7.6%	27.1%
2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00	31.2%	19.1%	64.0%	7.6%	27.1%
2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00	31.2%	19.1%	64.0%	7.6%	27.1%
2026-09-11T22:47:02+00:00	31.2%	19.1%	64.0%	7.6%	27.1%
2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00	31.2%	19.1%	64.7%	7.6%	27.0%
2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00	31.2%	19.1%	64.7%	7.6%	27.0%
2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00	31.2%	19.1%	64.7%	7.6%	27.0%
2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00	39.3%	19.1%	64.7%	7.6%	27.0%
2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00	39.3%	19.1%	64.7%	7.6%	27.0%
2026-09-12T03:17:41+00:00	39.3%	19.1%	64.7%	7.6%	27.0%
2026-09-12T04:02:54+00:00	39.3%	19.1%	64.7%	7.6%	27.0%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	39.3%	19.1%	64.7%	7.6%	27.0%
2026-09-12T05:33:03+00:00	39.3%	19.1%	50.0%	7.6%	27.0%
2026-09-12T06:18:12+00:00	39.3%	19.1%	50.0%	7.6%	27.0%
2026-09-12T07:03:17+00:00	39.3%	19.1%	50.0%	7.6%	27.0%
2026-09-12T07:48:24+00:00	26.9%	19.1%	50.0%	83.9%	56.5%
2026-09-12T08:33:44+00:00	26.9%	19.1%	50.0%	83.9%	56.5%
2026-09-12T09:18:48+00:00	26.9%	19.1%	50.0%	83.9%	56.5%
2026-09-12T10:03:54+00:00	26.9%	19.1%	50.0%	83.9%	56.5%
2026-09-12T10:48:58+00:00	26.9%	19.1%	50.0%	83.9%	56.5%
2026-09-12T11:34:05+00:00	26.9%	25.0%	52.7%	83.9%	56.5%
2026-09-12T12:19:13+00:00	26.9%	25.0%	52.7%	83.9%	56.5%
2026-09-12T13:04:21+00:00	26.9%	25.0%	52.7%	83.9%	56.5%
2026-09-12T13:49:26+00:00	32.7%	25.0%	52.7%	83.9%	56.5%
2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00	32.7%	25.0%	52.7%	78.2%	56.5%
2026-09-12T15:20:07+00:00	32.7%	27.3%	52.7%	84.0%	56.5%
2026-09-12T16:05:20+00:00	32.7%	27.3%	52.7%	84.0%	56.5%
2026-09-12T16:50:26+00:00	32.7%	27.3%	52.7%	84.0%	56.5%
2026-09-12T17:35:31+00:00	32.7%	27.3%	56.2%	84.0%	56.5%
2026-09-12T18:20:40+00:00	32.7%	27.3%	56.2%	84.0%	56.5%
2026-09-12T19:05:45+00:00	32.7%	27.3%	56.2%	84.0%	56.5%
2026-09-12T19:50:50+00:00	17.5%	27.3%	56.2%	84.0%	11.2%
2026-09-12T20:35:56+00:00	17.5%	27.3%	56.2%	84.0%	11.2%
2026-09-12T21:21:01+00:00	17.5%	27.3%	56.2%	84.0%	11.2%
2026-09-12T22:06:07+00:00	17.5%	27.3%	56.2%	84.0%	11.2%
2026-09-12T22:51:12+00:00	17.5%	27.3%	56.2%	66.3%	11.2%
2026-09-12T23:36:18+00:00	17.5%	27.3%	58.0%	66.3%	11.2%
2026-09-13T00:21:24+00:00	17.5%	27.3%	58.0%	66.3%	11.2%
2026-09-13T01:06:31+00:00	17.5%	27.3%	58.0%	66.3%	11.2%
2026-09-13T01:51:41+00:00	23.3%	27.3%	58.0%	66.3%	11.2%
2026-09-13T02:36:51+00:00	23.3%	27.3%	58.0%	66.3%	11.2%
2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00	23.3%	27.3%	58.0%	66.3%	11.2%
2026-09-13T04:07:03+00:00	23.3%	27.3%	58.0%	66.3%	11.2%
2026-09-13T04:52:17+00:00	23.3%	27.3%	58.0%	66.3%	11.2%
2026-09-13T05:37:22+00:00	23.3%	27.3%	58.0%	66.3%	11.2%
2026-09-13T06:22:31+00:00	23.3%	27.3%	58.0%	66.3%	11.2%
2026-09-13T07:07:36+00:00	23.3%	27.3%	58.0%	66.3%	11.2%
2026-09-13T07:52:43+00:00	16.3%	27.3%	58.0%	10.9%	15.3%
2026-09-13T08:38:10+00:00	16.3%	27.3%	58.0%	10.9%	15.3%
2026-09-13T09:23:16+00:00	16.3%	27.3%	58.0%	10.9%	15.3%
2026-09-13T10:08:21+00:00	16.3%	27.3%	58.0%	10.9%	15.3%
2026-09-13T10:53:27+00:00	16.3%	29.0%	46.1%	10.9%	15.3%
2026-09-13T11:38:37+00:00	16.3%	29.0%	46.1%	10.9%	15.3%
2026-09-13T12:23:43+00:00	16.3%	29.0%	46.1%	10.9%	15.3%
2026-09-13T13:08:48+00:00	16.3%	29.0%	46.1%	10.9%	15.3%
2026-09-13T13:53:53+00:00	19.4%	29.0%	46.1%	10.9%	15.4%
2026-09-13T14:39:24+00:00	19.4%	29.0%	46.1%	10.9%	15.4%
2026-09-13T15:24:29+00:00	19.4%	30.9%	46.1%	10.9%	15.4%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	19.4%	30.9%	46.1%	10.9%	15.4%
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	19.4%	30.9%	52.9%	10.9%	15.4%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	19.4%	30.9%	52.9%	10.9%	15.4%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	19.4%	30.9%	52.9%	10.9%	15.4%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	19.4%	30.9%	52.9%	10.9%	15.4%
2026-09-13T19:55:07+00:00	11.5%	30.9%	52.9%	22.1%	15.4%
2026-09-13T20:40:14+00:00	11.5%	30.9%	52.9%	22.1%	15.4%
2026-09-13T21:25:18+00:00	11.5%	30.9%	52.9%	22.1%	15.4%
2026-09-13T22:10:23+00:00	11.5%	30.9%	52.9%	22.1%	15.4%
2026-09-13T22:55:27+00:00	11.5%	30.9%	42.3%	22.1%	15.4%
2026-09-13T23:40:33+00:00	11.5%	30.9%	42.3%	22.0%	15.4%
2026-09-14T00:25:38+00:00	11.5%	30.9%	42.3%	22.0%	15.4%
2026-09-14T01:10:45+00:00	11.5%	30.9%	42.3%	22.0%	15.4%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	26.1%	30.9%	42.3%	22.0%	15.4%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	26.1%	30.9%	42.3%	22.0%	15.4%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	26.1%	30.9%	42.3%	22.0%	15.4%
2026-09-14T04:11:06+00:00	26.1%	30.9%	42.3%	22.0%	15.4%
2026-09-14T04:56:20+00:00	26.1%	30.9%	54.8%	22.0%	15.4%
2026-09-14T05:41:26+00:00	26.1%	30.9%	54.8%	22.0%	15.4%
2026-09-14T06:26:33+00:00	26.1%	30.9%	54.8%	22.0%	15.4%
2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00	26.1%	30.9%	54.8%	22.0%	15.4%
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00	24.9%	30.9%	54.8%	25.1%	7.9%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00	24.9%	30.9%	54.8%	25.1%	7.9%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00	24.9%	30.9%	54.8%	25.1%	7.9%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00	24.9%	30.9%	54.8%	25.1%	7.9%
2026-09-14T10:57:23+00:00	24.9%	22.2%	54.8%	25.1%	7.9%
2026-09-14T11:42:32+00:00	24.9%	22.2%	54.8%	25.1%	7.9%
2026-09-14T12:27:37+00:00	24.9%	22.2%	54.8%	25.1%	7.9%
2026-09-14T13:12:42+00:00	24.9%	22.2%	54.8%	25.1%	7.9%
2026-09-14T13:57:47+00:00	21.6%	22.2%	54.8%	25.2%	8.2%
2026-09-14T14:43:28+00:00	21.6%	22.2%	54.8%	25.2%	8.2%
2026-09-14T15:28:35+00:00	21.6%	24.0%	54.8%	25.2%	8.2%
2026-09-14T16:13:49+00:00	21.6%	24.0%	54.8%	25.2%	8.2%
2026-09-14T16:58:55+00:00	21.6%	24.0%	50.0%	25.2%	8.2%
2026-09-14T17:44:01+00:00	21.6%	24.0%	50.0%	25.2%	8.2%
2026-09-14T18:29:09+00:00	21.6%	24.0%	50.0%	25.2%	8.2%
2026-09-14T19:14:14+00:00	21.6%	24.0%	50.0%	25.2%	8.2%
2026-09-14T19:59:19+00:00	24.2%	24.0%	50.0%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-14T20:44:25+00:00	24.2%	24.0%	50.0%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-14T21:29:30+00:00	24.2%	24.0%	50.0%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-14T22:14:35+00:00	24.2%	24.0%	50.0%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-14T22:59:40+00:00	24.2%	24.0%	53.1%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-14T23:44:48+00:00	24.2%	24.0%	53.1%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-15T00:29:55+00:00	24.2%	24.0%	53.1%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-15T01:15:03+00:00	24.2%	24.0%	53.1%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-15T02:00:08+00:00	20.4%	24.0%	53.1%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-15T02:45:13+00:00	20.4%	24.0%	53.1%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00	20.4%	24.0%	53.1%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00	20.4%	24.0%	53.1%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00	20.4%	24.0%	61.1%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00	20.4%	24.0%	61.1%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	20.4%	24.0%	61.1%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00	20.4%	24.0%	61.1%	17.7%	4.6%
2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00	25.0%	24.0%	61.1%	8.6%	4.7%
2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00	25.0%	24.0%	61.1%	8.6%	4.7%
2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00	25.0%	24.0%	61.1%	8.6%	4.7%
2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00	25.0%	24.0%	61.1%	8.6%	4.7%
2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00	25.0%	11.3%	56.5%	8.6%	4.7%
2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00	25.0%	11.3%	56.5%	8.6%	4.7%
2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00	25.0%	11.3%	56.5%	8.6%	4.7%
2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00	25.0%	11.3%	56.5%	8.6%	4.7%
2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00	22.2%	11.4%	56.5%	17.0%	4.8%
2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00	22.2%	11.4%	56.5%	17.0%	4.8%
2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00	22.2%	12.0%	56.5%	8.6%	4.8%
2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00	22.2%	12.0%	56.5%	8.6%	4.8%
2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00	22.2%	12.0%	52.2%	8.6%	4.8%
2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00	22.2%	12.0%	52.2%	8.6%	4.8%
2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00	22.2%	12.0%	52.2%	8.6%	4.8%
2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00	22.2%	12.0%	52.2%	8.6%	4.8%
2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00	25.7%	12.0%	52.2%	8.6%	1.3%
2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00	25.7%	12.0%	52.2%	8.6%	1.3%
2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00	25.7%	12.0%	52.2%	8.6%	1.3%
2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00	25.7%	12.0%	52.2%	8.6%	1.3%
2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00	25.7%	12.0%	46.7%	8.2%	1.3%
2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00	25.7%	12.0%	46.7%	8.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00	25.7%	12.0%	46.7%	8.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00	25.7%	12.0%	46.7%	8.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00	31.8%	12.0%	46.7%	8.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00	31.8%	12.0%	46.7%	8.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T03:36:09+00:00	31.8%	12.0%	46.7%	8.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T04:21:31+00:00	31.8%	12.0%	46.7%	8.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T05:06:36+00:00	31.8%	12.0%	46.7%	8.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T05:51:44+00:00	31.8%	12.0%	46.7%	8.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T06:36:53+00:00	31.8%	12.0%	46.7%	8.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00	21.8%	12.0%	46.7%	3.5%	0.7%
2026-09-16T08:07:27+00:00	21.8%	12.0%	46.7%	3.5%	0.7%
2026-09-16T08:52:38+00:00	21.8%	12.0%	46.7%	3.5%	0.7%
2026-09-16T09:37:45+00:00	21.8%	12.0%	46.7%	3.5%	0.7%
2026-09-16T10:22:58+00:00	21.8%	12.0%	46.7%	3.5%	0.7%
2026-09-16T11:08:04+00:00	21.8%	6.7%	42.1%	3.5%	0.7%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	21.8%	6.7%	42.1%	3.5%	0.7%
2026-09-16T12:38:20+00:00	21.8%	6.7%	42.1%	3.5%	0.7%
2026-09-16T13:23:25+00:00	21.8%	6.7%	42.1%	3.5%	0.7%
2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00	21.8%	6.8%	42.1%	3.5%	0.6%
2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00	21.8%	7.3%	42.1%	3.5%	0.6%
2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00	21.8%	7.3%	42.1%	3.5%	0.6%
2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00	21.8%	7.3%	42.1%	5.1%	1.7%
2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00	21.8%	7.3%	36.6%	5.1%	1.7%
2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00	21.8%	7.3%	36.6%	5.1%	1.7%
2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00	21.8%	7.3%	36.6%	5.1%	1.7%
2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00	21.8%	7.3%	36.6%	10.3%	1.7%
2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00	21.8%	7.3%	36.6%	10.3%	1.7%
2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00	21.8%	7.3%	36.6%	10.3%	1.7%
2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00	21.8%	7.3%	36.6%	10.3%	1.7%
2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00	21.8%	7.3%	36.6%	10.3%	1.7%
2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00	22.5%	7.3%	41.0%	8.1%	1.7%
2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00	22.5%	7.3%	41.0%	8.1%	1.7%
2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00	22.5%	7.3%	41.0%	8.1%	1.7%
2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00	25.4%	7.3%	41.0%	8.1%	1.7%
2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00	25.4%	7.3%	41.0%	8.1%	1.7%
2026-09-17T02:57:11+00:00	25.4%	7.3%	41.0%	8.1%	1.7%
2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00	25.4%	7.3%	41.0%	8.1%	1.7%
2026-09-17T04:27:39+00:00	25.4%	7.3%	41.0%	8.1%	0.4%
2026-09-17T05:12:45+00:00	25.4%	7.3%	44.3%	8.1%	0.4%
2026-09-17T05:57:52+00:00	25.4%	7.3%	44.3%	8.1%	0.4%
2026-09-17T06:42:59+00:00	25.4%	7.3%	44.3%	8.1%	0.4%
2026-09-17T07:28:04+00:00	24.1%	7.3%	44.3%	8.1%	0.4%
2026-09-17T08:13:09+00:00	24.1%	7.3%	44.3%	8.1%	0.4%
2026-09-17T08:58:13+00:00	24.1%	7.3%	44.3%	8.1%	0.4%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	24.1%	7.3%	44.3%	8.1%	0.4%
2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00	24.1%	7.3%	44.3%	13.2%	0.4%
2026-09-17T11:14:01+00:00	24.1%	6.7%	44.1%	13.2%	0.4%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	24.1%	6.7%	44.1%	13.2%	0.4%
2026-09-17T12:44:16+00:00	24.1%	6.7%	44.1%	13.2%	0.4%
2026-09-17T13:29:21+00:00	25.6%	6.7%	44.1%	13.2%	0.4%
2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00	25.6%	6.7%	44.1%	13.2%	0.4%
2026-09-17T15:00:43+00:00	25.6%	6.5%	44.1%	13.2%	0.4%
2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00	25.6%	6.6%	44.1%	13.2%	0.4%
2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00	25.6%	6.6%	44.1%	13.2%	0.3%
2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:00	25.6%	6.6%	38.4%	13.2%	0.3%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	25.6%	6.6%	38.4%	13.2%	0.3%
2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00	25.6%	6.6%	38.4%	13.2%	0.3%
2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00	26.3%	6.6%	38.4%	13.2%	0.3%
2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00	26.3%	6.6%	38.4%	13.2%	0.3%
2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00	26.3%	6.6%	38.4%	13.2%	0.3%
2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00	26.3%	6.6%	38.4%	13.2%	0.3%
2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00	26.3%	6.6%	38.4%	12.6%	0.3%
2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00	26.3%	6.6%	39.5%	12.6%	0.3%
2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00	26.3%	6.6%	39.5%	12.6%	0.3%
2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00	26.3%	6.6%	39.5%	12.6%	0.3%
2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00	23.3%	6.6%	39.5%	12.6%	0.3%
2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00	23.3%	6.6%	39.5%	12.6%	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	40%	82.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	80.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	79.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	79.1°F	2.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	73.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 11 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗