KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

23%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 19.9¢Risks 19.90u

ICONNO 80.1¢Risks 80.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +80.10u · ICON −80.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	4.8%	—	—	24.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	7.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	2.3%	—	5.1%	9.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.3%	3.6%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	3.9%	2.5%	5.1%	—	17.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	4.4%	26.0%	—	24.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	5.8%	14.2%	—	38.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	12.7%	8.1%	—	22.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	14.3%	—	11.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	13.2%	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	33.8%	6.8%	—	14.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	2.1%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	15.4%	5.0%	—	5.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	1.7%	19.0%	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	4.6%	8.2%	9.0%	—	2.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	4.9%	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.9%	5.5%	2.5%	—	1.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	2.2%	3.0%	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.1%	3.5%	5.9%	1.3%	1.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.8%	2.2%	0.0%	—	1.5%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.1%	3.1%	2.5%	0.2%	1.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.1%	2.3%	1.9%	—	1.6%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	—	1.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.5%	0.4%	1.6%	—	1.1%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.3%	0.6%	1.7%	0.1%	1.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	—	0.5%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.8%	0.5%	0.6%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.5%	—	0.3%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	40%	82.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	80.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	79.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	79.1°F	2.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	73.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 11 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗