KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

84%

82%

62%

51%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.8¢Risks 74.80u

ICONNO 25.2¢Risks 25.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.20u · ICON −25.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T07:48:24+00:00	90.1%	76.8%	94.9%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T08:33:44+00:00	90.1%	76.8%	94.9%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T09:18:48+00:00	90.1%	76.8%	94.9%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T10:03:54+00:00	90.1%	76.8%	94.9%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T10:48:58+00:00	90.1%	76.8%	94.9%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T11:34:05+00:00	90.1%	84.6%	96.3%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T12:19:13+00:00	90.1%	84.6%	96.3%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T13:04:21+00:00	90.1%	84.6%	96.3%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T13:49:26+00:00	82.7%	84.6%	96.3%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00	82.7%	84.3%	96.3%	99.3%	68.8%
2026-09-12T15:20:07+00:00	82.7%	83.7%	96.3%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T16:05:20+00:00	82.7%	83.7%	96.3%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T16:50:26+00:00	82.7%	83.7%	96.3%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T17:35:31+00:00	82.7%	83.7%	98.4%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T18:20:40+00:00	82.7%	83.7%	98.4%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T19:05:45+00:00	82.7%	83.7%	98.4%	99.8%	68.8%
2026-09-12T19:50:50+00:00	72.5%	83.7%	98.4%	99.8%	51.2%
2026-09-12T20:35:56+00:00	72.5%	83.7%	98.4%	99.8%	51.2%
2026-09-12T21:21:01+00:00	72.5%	83.7%	98.4%	99.8%	51.2%
2026-09-12T22:06:07+00:00	72.5%	83.7%	98.4%	99.8%	51.2%
2026-09-12T22:51:12+00:00	72.5%	83.7%	98.4%	61.5%	51.2%
2026-09-12T23:36:18+00:00	72.5%	83.7%	98.4%	61.5%	51.2%
2026-09-13T00:21:24+00:00	72.5%	83.7%	98.4%	61.5%	51.2%
2026-09-13T01:06:31+00:00	72.5%	83.7%	98.4%	61.5%	51.2%
2026-09-13T01:51:41+00:00	82.2%	83.7%	98.4%	61.5%	51.2%
2026-09-13T02:36:51+00:00	82.2%	83.7%	98.4%	61.5%	51.2%
2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00	82.2%	83.7%	98.4%	61.5%	51.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	83.7°F	4.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	78.5°F	5.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	78.6°F	5.5°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	75.3°F	6.2°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	74.4°F	6.4°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	51%	73.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 74°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗