KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

84%

82%

62%

51%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.8¢Risks 74.80u

ICONNO 25.2¢Risks 25.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.20u · ICON −25.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	53.0%	—	70.8%	38.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	53.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	27.8%	—	—	59.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	23.3%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	91.8%	47.2%	—	77.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	73.4%	88.3%	—	81.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	84.9%	—	72.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	98.3%	—	—	7.4%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	99.1%	81.1%	—	93.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	7.6%	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	3.4%	72.1%	—	87.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	47.4%	99.1%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	87.8%	98.7%	81.6%	—	72.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	94.0%	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	92.7%	93.7%	94.7%	—	68.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	97.7%	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	90.6%	92.5%	92.8%	9.4%	79.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	84.8%	81.7%	—	—	82.3%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	59.2%	64.1%	92.2%	—	84.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	67.4%	0.6%	—	—	87.9%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	54.4%	2.1%	81.7%	—	82.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	48.9%	6.3%	0.1%	—	79.4%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	39.6%	73.0%	83.2%	30.0%	85.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	77.5%	47.6%	84.0%	—	87.4%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	36.5%	80.1%	79.2%	10.0%	93.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	60.2%	56.4%	80.0%	—	91.3%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	61.9%	64.4%	80.0%	93.0%	55.4%	89.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	65.0%	84.5%	93.8%	—	91.9%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	54.3%	96.5%	92.7%	45.7%	93.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	41.0%	96.3%	92.0%	—	95.2%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	63.9%	98.4%	92.3%	59.4%	89.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	35.5%	95.5%	63.0%	—	54.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	83.7°F	4.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	78.5°F	5.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	78.6°F	5.5°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	75.3°F	6.2°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	74.4°F	6.4°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	51%	73.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 74°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗