KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

90%

88%

80%

36%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.5¢Risks 63.55u

ICONNO 36.5¢Risks 36.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.45u · ICON −36.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T15:07:02+00:00	78.2%	90.1%	91.4%	91.3%	16.1%
2026-09-18T15:52:24+00:00	78.2%	90.1%	91.4%	91.3%	16.1%
2026-09-18T16:37:29+00:00	78.2%	90.1%	91.4%	91.3%	35.7%
2026-09-18T17:22:35+00:00	78.2%	90.1%	91.4%	91.3%	35.7%
2026-09-18T18:07:40+00:00	78.2%	90.1%	91.4%	91.3%	35.7%
2026-09-18T18:52:49+00:00	78.2%	90.1%	91.4%	91.3%	35.7%
2026-09-18T19:37:54+00:00	82.9%	90.1%	91.4%	91.3%	35.7%
2026-09-18T20:22:59+00:00	82.9%	90.1%	91.4%	91.3%	35.7%
2026-09-18T21:08:03+00:00	82.9%	90.1%	91.4%	91.3%	35.7%
2026-09-18T21:53:08+00:00	82.9%	90.1%	91.4%	91.3%	35.7%
2026-09-18T22:38:14+00:00	82.9%	90.1%	91.4%	88.0%	35.7%
2026-09-18T23:23:19+00:00	82.9%	90.1%	91.4%	88.0%	35.7%
2026-09-19T00:08:24+00:00	82.9%	90.1%	91.4%	88.0%	35.7%
2026-09-19T00:53:31+00:00	82.9%	90.1%	91.4%	88.0%	35.7%
2026-09-19T01:38:36+00:00	80.3%	90.1%	91.4%	88.0%	35.7%
2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00	80.3%	90.1%	91.4%	88.0%	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	79.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	90%	78.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	78.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	78.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	36%	73.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗