KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

90%

88%

80%

36%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.5¢Risks 63.55u

ICONNO 36.5¢Risks 36.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.45u · ICON −36.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	47.0%	—	65.4%	33.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	46.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	22.6%	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	18.4%	—	—	60.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	88.8%	40.3%	—	71.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	67.0%	84.4%	—	75.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	—	80.0%	—	65.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	97.2%	—	—	5.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	98.5%	75.2%	—	90.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	5.1%	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	2.1%	64.7%	—	82.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	39.0%	98.4%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	82.8%	97.7%	75.2%	—	64.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	90.8%	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	89.0%	90.2%	91.7%	—	60.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	96.0%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	85.8%	88.4%	88.9%	5.9%	72.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	78.1%	74.3%	—	—	75.1%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.9%	49.0%	54.1%	87.7%	—	78.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	57.4%	0.3%	—	—	81.7%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	43.5%	1.1%	73.6%	—	74.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	37.8%	3.5%	0.1%	—	70.4%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	28.9%	62.6%	74.9%	20.7%	77.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	67.5%	35.9%	75.6%	—	80.1%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	25.6%	70.2%	69.2%	5.5%	88.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	47.4%	43.6%	69.8%	—	85.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	51.3%	69.3%	87.4%	42.0%	81.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	51.4%	74.7%	88.2%	—	85.3%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	40.0%	92.7%	86.2%	31.8%	87.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	27.2%	92.0%	84.7%	—	90.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	48.4%	95.9%	84.8%	43.7%	80.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	21.6%	90.1%	46.7%	—	38.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	79.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	90%	78.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	78.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	78.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	36%	73.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗