KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 14 · 16:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.5¢Risks 4.23u

ICONNO 91.5¢Risks 45.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.77u · ICON −45.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T16:13:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T07:48:24+00:00	5.3%	0.1%	6.5%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T08:33:44+00:00	5.3%	0.1%	6.5%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T09:18:48+00:00	5.3%	0.1%	6.5%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T10:03:54+00:00	5.3%	0.1%	6.5%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T10:48:58+00:00	5.3%	0.1%	6.5%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T11:34:05+00:00	5.3%	0.9%	5.8%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T12:19:13+00:00	5.3%	0.9%	5.8%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T13:04:21+00:00	5.3%	0.9%	5.8%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T13:49:26+00:00	2.5%	0.9%	5.8%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00	2.5%	0.9%	5.8%	59.7%	12.7%
2026-09-12T15:20:07+00:00	2.5%	1.6%	5.8%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T16:05:20+00:00	2.5%	1.6%	5.8%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T16:50:26+00:00	2.5%	1.6%	5.8%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T17:35:31+00:00	2.5%	1.6%	11.2%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T18:20:40+00:00	2.5%	1.6%	11.2%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T19:05:45+00:00	2.5%	1.6%	11.2%	61.5%	12.7%
2026-09-12T19:50:50+00:00	1.1%	1.6%	11.2%	61.5%	5.5%
2026-09-12T20:35:56+00:00	1.1%	1.6%	11.2%	61.5%	5.5%
2026-09-12T21:21:01+00:00	1.1%	1.6%	11.2%	61.5%	5.5%
2026-09-12T22:06:07+00:00	1.1%	1.6%	11.2%	61.5%	5.5%
2026-09-13T07:52:43+00:00	2.1%	1.6%	11.2%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T08:38:10+00:00	2.1%	1.6%	11.2%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T09:23:16+00:00	2.1%	1.6%	11.2%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T10:08:21+00:00	2.1%	1.6%	11.2%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T10:53:27+00:00	2.1%	1.0%	1.6%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T11:38:37+00:00	2.1%	1.0%	1.6%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T12:23:43+00:00	2.1%	1.0%	1.6%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T13:08:48+00:00	2.1%	1.0%	1.6%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T13:53:53+00:00	2.1%	1.0%	1.6%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T14:39:24+00:00	2.1%	1.0%	1.6%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T15:24:29+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	1.6%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	1.6%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	2.7%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	2.7%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	2.7%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	2.7%	2.4%	33.4%
2026-09-13T19:55:07+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	2.7%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-13T20:40:14+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	2.7%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-13T21:25:18+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	2.7%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-13T22:10:23+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	2.7%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-13T22:55:27+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	2.3%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-13T23:40:33+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	2.3%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-14T00:25:38+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	2.3%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-14T01:10:45+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	2.3%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	4.3%	1.2%	2.3%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	4.3%	1.2%	2.3%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	4.3%	1.2%	2.3%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-14T04:11:06+00:00	4.3%	1.2%	2.3%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-14T04:56:20+00:00	4.3%	1.2%	8.6%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-14T05:41:26+00:00	4.3%	1.2%	8.6%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-14T06:26:33+00:00	4.3%	1.2%	8.6%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00	4.3%	1.2%	8.6%	8.3%	33.4%
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00	3.9%	1.2%	8.6%	16.0%	0.8%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00	3.9%	1.2%	8.6%	16.0%	0.8%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00	3.9%	1.2%	8.6%	16.0%	0.8%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00	3.9%	1.2%	8.6%	16.0%	0.8%
2026-09-14T10:57:23+00:00	3.9%	1.2%	8.6%	16.0%	0.8%
2026-09-14T11:42:32+00:00	3.9%	1.2%	8.6%	16.0%	0.8%
2026-09-14T12:27:37+00:00	3.9%	1.2%	8.6%	16.0%	0.8%
2026-09-14T13:12:42+00:00	3.9%	1.2%	8.6%	16.0%	0.8%
2026-09-14T15:28:35+00:00	1.7%	1.6%	8.6%	16.0%	0.9%
2026-09-14T16:13:49+00:00	1.7%	1.6%	8.6%	16.0%	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	16%	83.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	83.4°F	4.5°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	78.6°F	5.5°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	78.9°F	5.0°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	80.1°F	4.4°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	78.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	75.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗