KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

82%

49%

43%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.1¢Risks 47.15u

ICONNO 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.85u · ICON −52.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T02:57:11+00:00	47.4%	49.0%	92.8%	38.3%	15.6%
2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00	47.4%	49.0%	92.8%	38.3%	15.6%
2026-09-17T04:27:39+00:00	47.4%	49.0%	92.8%	38.3%	7.4%
2026-09-17T05:12:45+00:00	47.4%	49.0%	88.1%	38.3%	7.4%
2026-09-17T05:57:52+00:00	47.4%	49.0%	88.1%	38.3%	7.4%
2026-09-17T06:42:59+00:00	47.4%	49.0%	88.1%	38.3%	7.4%
2026-09-17T07:28:04+00:00	35.9%	49.0%	88.1%	38.3%	7.4%
2026-09-17T08:13:09+00:00	35.9%	49.0%	88.1%	38.3%	7.4%
2026-09-17T08:58:13+00:00	35.9%	49.0%	88.1%	38.3%	7.4%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	35.9%	49.0%	88.1%	38.3%	7.4%
2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00	35.9%	49.0%	88.1%	81.7%	7.4%
2026-09-17T11:14:01+00:00	35.9%	48.9%	86.9%	81.7%	7.4%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	35.9%	48.9%	86.9%	81.7%	7.4%
2026-09-17T12:44:16+00:00	35.9%	48.9%	86.9%	81.7%	7.4%
2026-09-17T13:29:21+00:00	42.8%	48.9%	86.9%	81.7%	7.4%
2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00	42.8%	48.9%	86.9%	81.8%	7.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	81.6°F	3.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	81.6°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	77.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	76.7°F	4.4°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	7%	71.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗