KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

82%

49%

43%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.1¢Risks 47.15u

ICONNO 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.85u · ICON −52.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	23.0%	17.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	14.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	6.7%	—	—	17.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	4.3%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	24.6%	—	40.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	96.4%	27.9%	—	74.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	58.3%	—	69.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	16.4%	30.1%	20.1%	—	59.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	23.7%	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	23.2%	5.6%	26.5%	—	30.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	34.2%	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	28.4%	60.4%	33.8%	—	33.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	24.9%	21.5%	—	—	9.2%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	7.6%	16.6%	11.5%	—	47.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	61.2%	17.1%	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	7.2%	5.9%	6.8%	—	38.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	5.1%	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	6.4%	13.9%	5.2%	0.5%	26.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	11.1%	19.0%	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	5.9%	1.1%	11.4%	0.1%	26.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	3.3%	1.6%	1.8%	—	28.6%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	4.0%	1.9%	5.1%	1.4%	38.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	4.5%	51.2%	13.9%	—	39.3%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	2.3%	1.1%	96.0%	0.7%	52.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	8.2%	25.9%	98.2%	—	48.7%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	14.9%	17.3%	18.2%	5.3%	22.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.0%	12.4%	20.1%	—	22.1%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.5%	0.6%	12.2%	1.8%	25.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.9%	0.4%	7.0%	—	12.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.4%	2.2%	1.6%	0.4%	17.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.2%	0.8%	—	7.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	81.6°F	3.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	81.6°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	77.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	76.7°F	4.4°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	7%	71.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗