KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Sep 20 · 02:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

75%

61%

41%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.7¢Risks 70.65u

HRESNO 29.3¢Risks 29.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.35u · HRES −29.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T15:12:56+00:00	69.1%	99.9%	99.9%	70.3%	84.7%
2026-09-19T15:58:13+00:00	69.1%	99.9%	99.9%	70.3%	84.7%
2026-09-19T16:43:18+00:00	69.1%	99.9%	99.9%	70.3%	61.2%
2026-09-19T17:28:23+00:00	69.1%	99.9%	99.9%	70.3%	61.2%
2026-09-19T18:13:28+00:00	69.1%	99.9%	99.9%	70.3%	61.2%
2026-09-19T18:58:37+00:00	69.1%	99.9%	99.9%	70.3%	61.2%
2026-09-19T19:43:42+00:00	75.5%	99.9%	99.9%	41.4%	61.2%
2026-09-19T20:28:47+00:00	75.5%	99.9%	99.9%	41.4%	61.2%
2026-09-19T21:13:51+00:00	75.5%	99.9%	99.9%	41.4%	61.2%
2026-09-19T21:58:56+00:00	75.5%	99.9%	99.9%	41.4%	61.2%
2026-09-19T22:44:02+00:00	75.5%	99.9%	99.9%	41.4%	61.2%
2026-09-19T23:29:06+00:00	75.5%	99.9%	99.9%	41.4%	61.2%
2026-09-20T00:14:12+00:00	75.5%	99.9%	99.9%	41.4%	61.2%
2026-09-20T00:59:22+00:00	75.5%	99.9%	99.9%	41.4%	61.2%
2026-09-20T01:44:29+00:00	74.7%	99.9%	99.9%	41.4%	61.2%
2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00	74.7%	99.9%	99.9%	41.4%	61.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	73.2°F	2.4°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	77.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	68.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	61%	66.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	64.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 19 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗