KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Sep 20 · 02:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

75%

61%

41%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.7¢Risks 70.65u

HRESNO 29.3¢Risks 29.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.35u · HRES −29.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	7.1%	—	—	95.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	97.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	100.0%	—	—	98.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	80.6%	—	90.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	100.0%	97.3%	—	98.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	63.5%	100.0%	80.5%	—	97.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	99.2%	99.3%	95.3%	—	95.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	74.4%	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	99.9%	69.2%	83.8%	—	91.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	97.9%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	70.1%	64.6%	94.8%	—	88.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	81.0%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	84.5%	51.8%	78.4%	—	81.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	79.7%	23.8%	—	—	76.2%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	90.2%	45.1%	81.7%	—	69.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	86.5%	62.8%	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	90.1%	44.9%	84.3%	—	68.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	64.5%	61.5%	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	86.3%	61.8%	86.9%	47.8%	73.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	72.4%	71.4%	25.8%	—	68.5%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	65.9%	81.7%	95.5%	87.9%	62.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	65.3%	59.5%	97.8%	—	60.7%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	53.7%	40.1%	56.2%	76.4%	43.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	59.0%	43.6%	38.5%	—	51.3%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	79.0%	34.3%	35.6%	80.9%	46.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	78.9%	33.8%	52.8%	—	39.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	85.4%	35.8%	38.6%	70.7%	47.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	19.2%	4.1%	39.5%	—	22.4%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.7%	0.7%	5.2%	1.2%	2.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	73.2°F	2.4°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	77.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	68.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	61%	66.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	64.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 19 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗