KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 20 · 14:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

40%

19%

16%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

HRESNO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.10u · HRES −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T14:33:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T03:02:35+00:00	48.3%	97.1%	99.6%	80.2%	78.9%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	48.3%	97.1%	99.6%	80.2%	78.9%
2026-09-18T04:33:07+00:00	48.3%	97.1%	99.6%	80.2%	83.7%
2026-09-18T05:18:12+00:00	48.3%	97.1%	99.6%	80.2%	83.7%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	48.3%	97.1%	99.6%	80.2%	83.7%
2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00	48.3%	97.1%	99.6%	80.2%	83.7%
2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:00	45.5%	97.1%	99.6%	67.9%	83.7%
2026-09-18T08:19:06+00:00	45.5%	97.1%	99.6%	67.9%	83.7%
2026-09-18T09:04:11+00:00	45.5%	97.1%	99.6%	67.9%	83.7%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	45.5%	97.1%	99.6%	67.9%	83.7%
2026-09-18T10:34:26+00:00	45.5%	97.1%	99.6%	67.9%	83.7%
2026-09-18T11:20:00+00:00	45.5%	98.9%	99.6%	67.9%	83.7%
2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:00	45.5%	98.9%	99.6%	67.9%	83.7%
2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:00	45.5%	98.9%	99.6%	67.9%	83.7%
2026-09-18T13:35:24+00:00	56.3%	98.9%	99.6%	67.9%	83.7%
2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:00	56.3%	98.9%	99.6%	67.9%	83.6%
2026-09-18T15:07:03+00:00	56.3%	99.0%	99.6%	67.9%	83.6%
2026-09-18T15:52:24+00:00	56.3%	99.0%	99.6%	67.9%	83.6%
2026-09-18T16:37:29+00:00	56.3%	99.0%	99.6%	67.9%	81.6%
2026-09-18T17:22:35+00:00	56.3%	99.0%	99.6%	67.9%	81.6%
2026-09-18T18:07:40+00:00	56.3%	99.0%	99.6%	67.9%	81.6%
2026-09-18T18:52:49+00:00	56.3%	99.0%	99.6%	67.9%	81.6%
2026-09-18T19:37:54+00:00	62.5%	99.0%	99.6%	67.9%	81.6%
2026-09-18T20:22:59+00:00	62.5%	99.0%	99.6%	67.9%	81.6%
2026-09-18T21:08:03+00:00	62.5%	99.0%	99.6%	67.9%	81.6%
2026-09-18T21:53:08+00:00	62.5%	99.0%	99.6%	67.9%	81.6%
2026-09-18T22:38:14+00:00	62.5%	99.0%	99.6%	63.8%	81.6%
2026-09-18T23:23:19+00:00	62.5%	99.0%	99.6%	63.8%	81.6%
2026-09-19T00:08:24+00:00	62.5%	99.0%	99.6%	63.8%	81.6%
2026-09-19T00:53:31+00:00	62.5%	99.0%	99.6%	63.8%	81.6%
2026-09-19T01:38:36+00:00	65.0%	99.0%	99.6%	63.8%	81.6%
2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00	65.0%	99.0%	99.6%	63.8%	81.6%
2026-09-19T03:08:50+00:00	65.0%	99.0%	99.6%	63.8%	81.6%
2026-09-19T03:54:12+00:00	65.0%	99.0%	99.6%	63.8%	81.6%
2026-09-19T04:39:18+00:00	65.0%	99.0%	99.6%	63.8%	66.5%
2026-09-19T05:24:23+00:00	65.0%	99.0%	99.6%	63.8%	66.5%
2026-09-19T06:09:27+00:00	65.0%	99.0%	99.6%	63.8%	66.5%
2026-09-19T06:54:36+00:00	65.0%	99.0%	99.6%	63.8%	66.5%
2026-09-19T07:39:44+00:00	56.6%	99.0%	99.6%	51.9%	66.5%
2026-09-19T08:25:22+00:00	56.6%	99.0%	99.6%	51.9%	66.5%
2026-09-19T09:10:35+00:00	56.6%	99.0%	99.6%	51.9%	66.5%
2026-09-19T09:55:40+00:00	56.6%	99.0%	99.6%	51.9%	66.5%
2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:00	56.6%	99.0%	99.6%	51.9%	66.5%
2026-09-19T11:25:52+00:00	56.6%	98.9%	99.6%	51.9%	66.5%
2026-09-19T12:11:02+00:00	56.6%	98.9%	99.6%	51.9%	66.5%
2026-09-19T12:56:07+00:00	56.6%	98.9%	99.6%	51.9%	66.5%
2026-09-19T13:41:13+00:00	50.9%	98.9%	99.6%	51.9%	66.5%
2026-09-19T14:27:49+00:00	50.9%	98.9%	99.6%	51.9%	67.5%
2026-09-20T03:14:43+00:00	57.5%	99.0%	99.6%	24.1%	38.8%
2026-09-20T04:00:02+00:00	57.5%	99.0%	99.6%	24.1%	38.8%
2026-09-20T04:45:07+00:00	57.5%	99.0%	99.6%	24.1%	19.0%
2026-09-20T05:30:13+00:00	57.5%	99.0%	99.6%	24.1%	19.0%
2026-09-20T06:15:18+00:00	57.5%	99.0%	99.6%	24.1%	19.0%
2026-09-20T07:00:26+00:00	57.5%	99.0%	99.6%	24.1%	19.0%
2026-09-20T07:45:33+00:00	57.8%	99.0%	99.6%	16.2%	19.0%
2026-09-20T08:31:11+00:00	57.8%	99.0%	99.6%	16.2%	19.0%
2026-09-20T09:16:16+00:00	57.8%	99.0%	99.6%	16.2%	19.0%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	57.8%	99.0%	99.6%	16.2%	19.0%
2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:00	57.8%	99.0%	99.6%	16.2%	19.0%
2026-09-20T11:31:31+00:00	57.8%	99.6%	99.6%	16.2%	19.0%
2026-09-20T12:16:51+00:00	57.8%	99.6%	99.6%	16.2%	19.0%
2026-09-20T13:01:56+00:00	57.8%	99.6%	99.6%	16.2%	19.0%
2026-09-20T13:47:01+00:00	40.3%	99.6%	99.6%	16.2%	19.0%
2026-09-20T14:33:32+00:00	40.3%	99.6%	99.6%	16.2%	19.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.5°F	2.6°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	77.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	66.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	66.0°F	6.0°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	19%	64.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	63.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗